At the eleventh hour, COP29 closed the agreement on climate finance. Developed countries committed US$300 billion annually, three times more than the previous commitment. They did not receive applause: developing countries and the most vulnerable described the value as “poor” and environmental activists declared the COP a failure. In fact, however, the result illuminated the bankruptcy of the concept that has presided over financial negotiations since the Paris Agreement (2015).
The COPs became farcical theaters. The penultimate occurred in the United Arab Emirates and the latter in Azerbaijan, countries whose economies are based on oil and gas. This US$300 billion, in addition to being insufficient to mitigate global warming and promote adaptation to climate change, is a mirage in the desert, as most of the resources would come from uncertain sources. But the core of the impasse is something else: the rule that only imposes payments to developed nations.
The rule is rooted in the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities, enshrined in ECO-92. The Paris Agreement interpreted it as an absolute exemption for developing economies.
China, the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases, with 30% of the total, holding vast financial reserves, has no financing responsibility. The same occurs with India, the source of 7.4% of emissions, in third place, with Brazil (2.4%), in fifth place, and with large exporters with high per capita income, such as Saudi Arabia and Arab Emirates. How can we explain to Spanish, Portuguese, Greek or even German voters that these countries do not need to contribute any dollars?
The ritual justification invests in an environmental version of the idea of ”historical reparation”: “you made the Industrial Revolution and therefore you must clean up the mess.” The Industrial Revolution had its birth in developed countries, which were its biggest beneficiaries, but it shaped all modern societies. Only people who live from hunting, fishing and gathering have the right to synthesize it as mere dirt. Industrial technologies have revolutionized transport, communications and agricultural productivity, given birth to current medicine and generated vaccines. Their “Industrial Revolution” belongs to the domain of militant caricature.
Today’s Brazil is the result of the Industrial Revolution. The metropolis of São Paulo arose from coffee, a typical drug of the industrial world. Rubber triggered the expansion of Manaus, which would become the second largest equatorial metropolis in the world. PT’s birth certificate has the address of the automakers of ABC São Paulo. He was a machinist at Indústrias Villares.
The event, in Belém, a year from now, will take place in Trump’s long shadow. The perpetuation of the “historical reparation” discourse, which already diverts votes to European parties engaged in climate denialism, is a sure recipe for new failure. The Brazilian government, host of the meeting, has little time to articulate a sustainable climate financing rule, based on GDP per capita, emissions per capita or a combination of indicators. The alternative is a sterile exchange of accusations – that is, political theater to entertain the audience.
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