The tendency to expand energy generation in the national territory involves the free market. Among the plants that entered commercial operation in Brazil in 2024, 84% were destined for the free contracting environment (ACL), according to data from the National Electric Energy Agency (Aneel).
The agency’s figures show that 299 plants began operating this year, with an installed capacity of 8.5 gigawatts (GW). Of this total, 251 projects with 8.5 GW of capacity focus on the free market.
The new plants are mainly solar (5 GW) and wind (3.5 GW), with a small number of thermal and small hydroelectric plants (PCHs).
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New projects
A study published by the Brazilian Association of Electric Energy Traders (Abraceel) shows that, by 2030, the planned projects have a 93% share of projects for commercialization on the free market.
Aneel data based on new project registrations predicts an expansion in capacity of 157 GW, 146 GW of which outside the regulated contracting environment. According to Abraceel, the participation of the free market has increased over the years.
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In February 2019, 34% of projects were aimed at ACL. Two years later, the growth trend was consolidated and 72% of the plants focused on the free market.
The CEO of Envol Energy Consulting, Alexandre Viana, explains that the trend towards opening the market for residential customers will change the dynamics of energy auctions. Today, the free market is restricted to high voltage consumers.
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In the consultant’s assessment, the market should now require auctions for existing energy with terms of up to five years, as distributors are already preparing for the opening of the market.
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Renewable sources
“The expansion of renewable sources will take place mainly through the free market. The replacement and management of the distributor’s portfolio will occur through an auction of existing energy. The reliability of the system, when you need thermal or more cutting-edge hydro, [vai ser negociada] through a capacity reserve auction”, he says.
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Viana worked at the Electricity Trading Chamber (CCEE) when the growth of free market projects began.
Since that time, distributors have been less willing to contract new energy projects for a series of reasons, one of which is the tendency for large consumers to migrate to the free market.
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“If there is less demand to be met commercially, they will buy less energy in the regular auction. Furthermore, we had already identified the trend of GD [geração distribuída]. It was still embryonic in 2016 and 2017, but it has already identified itself,” he said.
