A ceasefire began in Lebanon on Wednesday and the return of war in Syria. That belongs together. Syrian rebels – who remain to be defined in more detail – have seized the opportunity: the forces that saved Bashar al-Assad’s rule in the years after 2011 have been weakened. The Lebanese Hezbollah in particular is only a shadow of its former self after its self-imposed war with Israel. Iran has other concerns. Both are also under direct attack by Israel in Syria. This has strengthened Assad’s opponents.