It is predicted that the four years that he inaugurated in the presidency of the USA will be long and difficult for the world. In the new reality that is taking shape, she is called upon to meet the challenges posed by the new American leadership for an additional reason: the challenges are coming at the worst possible time.
Europe is limping in leadership, at the moment when the war on European soil, in , after the invasion of Russia on February 24, 2022, exceeded, last Tuesday, the psychological limit of a thousand days and now acquires dimensions of conflict with the West, after and Russia’s attack with a new type of medium-range ballistic missile last Thursday in response to the decision of the US president Joe Biden to give the green light to the Ukrainians to hit Russia with US missiles on its soil.
France and Germany, the leading countries of the EU, pillars of the European edifice, are struggling. France is experiencing political instability after last summer’s long negotiations to form a government following last June’s early elections.
Germany has entered election season ahead of snap elections on February 23, 2025, after the collapse of the coalition government under Chancellor Olaf Solz due to disagreements over the course of recovery of the German economy, which is going through a crisis. It can only be seen as ironic – and a gift to the new US president – that the German governing coalition collapsed a day after Trump’s victory in the US presidential election.
and the looming change of attitude of the US, always in line with the pre-election announcements of Trump, who boasts that he will “end the war in one day”, urgently bring back the issue of common European defense, while also highlighting the issue of energy sufficiency of Europe but also of the EU’s general attitude towards the energy problem. At the same time, in terms of the economy, Europe’s growth is sluggish.
Europe must become more competitive (as pointed out in the relevant report), while it is increasingly under pressure from China. In addition, Europe should dynamically develop the sectors of technology and innovation (as pointed out in its relevant report Enrico Leta), in which the USA also leads, followed by China.
Aware of their weaknesses, the “27” must find ways to successfully navigate this hostile environment. Europe cannot afford to panic over the election of Trump. It should work together and with an eye to the future.
that they tend to feel morally superior to Americans, especially when Trump is the leader of the USA. This time, however, during Trump’s second term, Europeans should put aside this perception, reflect on what their strong cards are and cooperate with the new American administration without giving up trying to cooperate at the first difficulty . Because Trump’s America 2.0 is not an easy track.
Trade: Carrot and whip with high tariffs background
Trump has called the word the nicest word in the dictionary. A champion of American protectionism in the economy, the newly elected president is threatening to impose tariffs ranging from 10% to 20% on European products (and up to 60% on Chinese ones).
Some analysts believe that Europe should not retaliate in kind, i.e. by imposing, in turn, tariffs on American products. Because, as Trump has pointed out, the EU doesn’t buy many American products. The main product it buys is liquefied natural gas (LNG) and it is not in its interest to buy it more expensively.
For the EU to commit to buying more American products could perhaps be a way of appeasing Trump, since he likes all kinds of deals. The most likely possibility is, according to “Monde” columnist Stéphane Oué, that in this particular area the EU will follow the carrot and stick policy.
The only certainty is that en bloc, united, as a political and economic entity of 27 countries, and its member countries (like for example Germany, which has major economic interests in the US) will not seek bilateral agreements with Washington, because that would only benefit Trump.
The European Commission says it is open to concluding “targeted agreements” with the US, aimed at reducing the US trade deficit. It is ready, however, in the event that negotiations in this direction fail, to proceed with countermeasures in politically sensitive areas for Trump.
Defense: The crisis as an opportunity for bold decisions
But this strategy of countermeasures carries risks as it remains an open question whether and to what extent Trump intends to link the imposition of trade tariffs with the issue of defense – that is, if, as part of blackmail, Trump threatens to withdraw the US military umbrella for to pressure the Europeans on the issue of trade. But this kind of pressure can prove very effective and be an additional reason for Europeans to accelerate the pace of achieving common European defense.
«We cannot depend indefinitely on the Americans” the French president said a few days after the US election, hinting at Europe’s dependence on the US in defense. An opinion shared by Pierre Moscovicia former economic commissioner during Trump’s first presidency (2016-2020), who stresses that the EU should develop its own defense – which will not obviously oppose NATO.
Moscovici, who knows Trump and his politics, warns that Europe has not been and will never be a priority of the new US president.
But Trump may try to divide the Europeans and turn the EU countries against each other, taking advantage of his admirers and friends in Europe, such as him, the prime minister of Hungary, and the Robert Fitzoprime minister of Slovakia.
Trump’s threats to withdraw US military support for Ukraine may also prompt faster decision-making in the EU on European defense and force European governments to take bold decisions, such as agreeing to issue European bonds for the defense.
According to analysts of the Carnegie Endowment, an American think tank, all EU member countries should support the issuance of European bonds for defense, because the international situation demands it. In addition, they add, ahead of the NATO summit in the Netherlands in June 2025, the Europeans could come up with a proposal to increase defense spending to 3% by the end of Trump’s second term in 2028.
And the Europeans would do well to use all means at their disposal to convince the US of the sincerity of their intentions. Berlin could use the opportunity presented by the collapse of the governing coalition to bypass the insistence of government partners on strict adherence to fiscal discipline in favor of increased defense investment.
Brussels should perhaps stop scolding Poland (which borders Russia, via the Kaliningrad enclave, but also Ukraine) for violating the terms of fiscal discipline and demanding increased defense spending.
Technology: Poor relation to Big Tech
With the US leading the way in technology and innovation, there is nothing stopping Trump from threatening a trade embargo on Europe, even to achieve relaxation of European legislation on Big Tech. In the specific areas of technology and innovation, next to the USA the EU looks like a poor relative, even though it also has a lead – it is a world leader in digital governance, i.e. in the digitization of the public sector.
The EU has fallen behind all the rest because it does not have a common understanding of the strategic importance of digital technologies, such as broadband development or the application of artificial intelligence.
The EU has tended to regulate more (hence the sometimes hefty fines it imposes on Big Tech) rather than allowing the dynamics of innovation to shape its digital future. Europe’s disadvantages also include the lack of major European digital technology companies with global influence. Whether Europe will succeed in developing into a producer of technology and innovation or will remain an importer of advanced technology, and therefore dependent on the US and China, is not a question with an easy answer.
Based on recent studies, it is concluded that the EU is doing well in planning but lagging behind in implementing programmes. The EU has drawn up and launched the ‘Digital Decade 2030’ programme, but while it has the funds, it has yet to find a way to produce more and buy less to boost the economy and competitiveness and shield its democracy from the threat of disinformation.
Europe should also prevent the abolition of the US-EU Trade and Technology Council (its abolition is among Trump’s campaign announcements), a bilateral forum established in 2021 to discuss technology standards.
Abolishing the forum could negatively impact transatlantic cooperation on issues such as artificial intelligence, data privacy and 5G networks. Without the forum, the two sides could adopt conflicting regulations, complicating trade and reducing the compatibility of technology products and services.
The Trade and Technology Council also enables the US and the EU to address shared concerns about China’s influence on global technology infrastructure and the security of supply chains.
Energy: Fears of collapse of Green Deal
Trump has already made it clear that he will change US energy policy. He is pro-fossil fuel and anti-renewable because he believes this shift will lower US energy costs and boost American industry. He intends to withdraw the US from it (as he had done during his first term) and remove all restrictions on oil and gas extraction in America.
These measures are at odds with the European Green Deal – a package of initiatives which from 2019 puts the EU on a green transition path to achieve climate neutrality by 2050 – and other European regulations on energy and climate change.
It also cannot be ruled out that Trump will want to use as a negotiating weapon the EU’s dependence on US liquefied natural gas (), which has largely replaced the older dependence on Russian gas, and put it on the negotiating table. negotiations whenever there is a difference of opinion between the US and the EU. In this case, the US government’s oldest argument that “we don’t instrumentalize energy like Russia” will apparently cease to apply.
But Trump’s decision to boost LNG exports is not necessarily bad news for Europe, which is seeking to diversify its energy supplies from Russia as much as possible. According to the Financial Times, LNG exports could prove to be a powerful bargaining chip in the hands of the Europeans for a possible deal between Brussels and Washington, with America sending more gas to Europe in exchange for Trump preventing the to impose high tariffs on European products.
But Trump’s insistence on using fossil fuels may strengthen populist right-wing and far-right voices within the EU, which are pushing for a slower pace of transition to .
