It all started last Wednesday, by surprise. After years of stagnationFor the first time since 2020, the guns sounded again in Syria. The Arab country’s rebels, led by the radical Islamist militia of Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS)they began an offensive against the forces of the Syrian president, Bashar al-Asadin the east of the province of Idlib —controlled by the rebels— and western Aleppo.
In a few hours, the rebels conquered Syria’s second city, and have put the Syrian president in check for the first time in almost 10 years. These are the keys to the reactivation of a conflict that started in 2011, after the arab springs from the entire region:
Since 2020, little has happened within the Syrian board. After the latest attack by Assad and his allies —Russia e Iran— against Idlib, a ceasefire agreed with Türkiye frozen a conflict that was put on the refrigerator until last week.
There were no changes on the ground, nor remodeling of fronts between Assad, rebels and Kurdish militiamen, who control the east of the country, but that does not mean that during these years the war has stopped. The bombings of Assad and Russia against civilians in Idlib have been a constant despite the ceasefire.
Given the stoppage of fighting, according to experts, the rebels supported by Türkiye and HTS took advantage of these years to rearm and professionalize militarily. The majority of these militias are made up of local residents and young people who have lived most of their lives in a context of civil war.
The opposite has happened on Assad’s side: his two great allies, given the decline in skirmishes in Syria, have allocated their military resources in other theaters in recent years: Russia, in Ukraineand Iran, with its related militias, in the Lebanon with the war between Israel y Hezbollah.
Hezbollah, in fact, has been one of Assad’s spearheads since the Lebanese militia entered the Syrian war in support of Assad in 2015. Since the start of the Israeli offensive in southern Lebanon, all Hezbollah militiamen Previously assigned to Syria, they were sent back to their country.
Thus, with Assad’s defenses and barracks decimated, HTS and the other rebel militias began a lightning offensive heading towards Aleppo. At first, the rebels explained, their intention was only to reconquer part of the territory lost in 2020, and to arrive and cut the M5 motorwaywhich connects Aleppo with southern Syria.
But the initial plan soon changed: the disbandment of the Damascus It was such that on Thursday morning, HTS militiamen arrived 10 kilometers from Aleppo. The city was taken on Friday night, and rebel advances continued until Sunday, when Assad established a new defensive line in northern Syria. Hama150 km south of Aleppo.
The blow to Assad is enormous: in just five days of offensive, the Syrian rebels have almost doubled their control territorial and, even more important, they now control the second city in the country and what was, before the start of the civil war, the economic capital Syria.
Leading the rebels in this offensive is Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS), the largest Syrian opposition militia and the one that currently controls the province of Idlib. HTS was, until 2017, known as Jabhat Al Nusra: the subsidiary of Al Qaeda in Syria. But in that year, their leader, Abu Muhammad al-Jolanibroke with the jihadist organization and announced that his militia was renouncing the international terrorism to focus exclusively on the fight against the Damascus regime.
HTS is, thus, a radical islamist militiaand in the territory where it governs, ‘Sharia’ prevails: Islamic law. But in recent years, Jolani has been characterized by seeking to show himself dressed in ‘European-style’ button-down shirts, and has been constantly sending messages about his respect for women. religious minorities from northern Syria, especially the Christians. However, HTS is on the list of terrorist organizations of USAand Türkiye, a vital country for the Syrian rebels.
Ankara is, in fact, the last sponsor of the Syrian rebel militias: it is Türkiye that arms, finances and pays salaries of Syrian opposition militiamen. This is not the case of HTS, which does not have a direct connection with Türkiye, although there is clear communication between Ankara and the rebel militia.
The Government of Recep Tayyip Erdoganaccording to Turkish security experts, was ultimately the one that allowed the rebel offensive against Assad that started last week, and hopes to be one of the big winners against the opposition advance in Aleppo. According to these experts, Erdogan wants to force Assad to sit at the negotiating table so that Türkiye has decision power in a post-war Syria and can return to his country the more than three million refugees Syrians who currently inhabit the Anatolian country.
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