It is headed for its fall, according to all existing indications, after the decision of Prime Minister Michel Barnier not to accept the increase in social security costs requested by the opposition and, in the absence of a parliamentary majority, to appeal to Article 49.3 of the French Constitution which enables him to legislate in the absence of the National Assembly.
As, after that, it was expected, both the New Popular Front of the Left and the far-right party of Marine Le Pen filed a motion of censure against the government, which if passed (most likely next Wednesday or Thursday) will lead to the downfall of and the failure to pass the 2025 state budget.
An extremely likely scenario, since the opposition parties together have a parliamentary majority, controlling 332 of the 577 seats in the French National Assembly.
In this case the Barnier government, having remained in power for only three months, will be the shortest in the history of France and Michel Barnier the first French prime minister to be forced out after a vote of impeachment.
Macron’s two options
As for what will happen next, two are the most likely possibilities: The first is that in the near future President Macron will appoint a new prime minister who, having a majority in the National Assembly, will manage to pass, with summary procedures, the 2025 budget before the expiration of 2024 .
The second possibility is that President Macron does not appoint a new government. In practice this means that it remains the existing one, but managing current affairs only. In terms of the budget, the so-called practice of twelve decimals will be followed in 2025, which means that every month of the year the state revenues and state expenditures will be equal to the corresponding ones in 2024. For this to happen, however, there must be the consent of the National Assembly . Otherwise, France will face an impasse, considering that President Macron has ruled out any possibility of resigning himself.
