Mário Cruz / Lusa
Admiral Henrique Gouveia e Melo, CEMA
There is a clear favorite to succeed Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa in the Presidency of the Republic, according to new research. Gouveia e Melo didn’t give us much, but he already gave us a sample of some of his political ideas.
Henrique Gouveia e Melo appears as the clear favorite for the 2026 presidential elections, according to an Intercampus survey carried out this month for Correio da Manhã, CMTV and Jornal de .
The current Chief of Staff of the Navy obtains 23% of voting intentions, almost double that of second place, Pedro Passos Coelhowhich collects 13.9%.
The survey analyzed 13 potential candidates. THE admiral was a consensual figure among respondents, with support from different political areas: is supported by 23% of Democratic Alliance voters, 24% of Chega and Liberal Initiative voters, and 30% of PS supporters.
This is what has been expected. With a technical and pragmatic profile, Gouveia e Melo seems to attract support from both the right and the left, positioning himself as a figure independent — a source close to Expresso has already confirmed that it is in the race to Belém.
Over the years, the admiral, closely associated with successfully coordinating COVID-19 vaccinations, has never specifically revealed his political stance — as active-duty military personnel cannot get involved in politics. But until now there has been an idea that has never gone unnoticed: the centrism.
“I’m not going to limit myself, neither to the right side nor to the left side”, he said, in September, in an interview with , when asked about a possible candidacy for the Presidency of the Republic.
He has also stated that he belongs to the “pragmatic center”, with “some things more to the left and some things more to the right”, in Expresso in 2021; “balance is at the center”, he reinforced in May this year to the TSF.
Faced with the danger of “political forces that advocate very simplified solutions that can be very attractive in terms of media, but can be dangerous in terms of execution, the center must be strong and find solutions within what democracy is”, reinforced the admiral, stressing that he does not see “parties that want to subvert democracy in the Portuguese political system.”
The 13 possible candidates
The former prime minister (13.9%) is the second favorite of those surveyed in the most recent survey, but very far from the admiral. Even further away is the commentator Luís Marques Mendes (9.8%)a name that has also been suggested for the succession of Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa and which left open the possibility of running for office.
Chega’s leader Andre Ventura appears in fourth place on the list of 13 possible candidates, with 6,6% of voting preferences, followed by the socialist Mário Centeno (6.4%).
Former candidate for Belém, Ana Gomes is in 6th position, with 5,1% preferences.
The former leader of the PS, Antonio José Segurowho has recently been considering a candidacy and that “everything is open” — appears as 7th favorite, with 4,7%. Next comes the Bloc deputy, Catarina Martins (4%)o liberal Cotrim de Figueiredo and Durão Barroso (3.2%)with the leader of Livre, Rui Tavaresfurther down, with 2,4% of preferences for Belém.
The surprise, on the negative side, is the position of Santana Lopes — just convinces 1,3% of interviewees, despite having become one of the most suggested names for Marcelo’s succession and having admitted, since 2020, the chance to run for office.
Intercampus’ analysis went beyond the first round, simulating scenarios of a possible second round. In these projections, Gouveia e Melo maintains a dominant position compared to the other names. Against Marques Mendes, for example, the admiral received almost half of the votes.
Gouveia e Melo, who has already decided not to extend his term as head of the Navy, which ends in December, should even formally announce his candidacy in March or April 2024, as ZAP had already reported. So far, only Chega has shown intentions to support the chief’s candidacy.
