The slowdown in the Brazilian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) between the second and third quarters of this year is not yet influenced by the new cycle of increases in the basic interest rate, the Selic, but rather by the high basis of comparison, assessed Rebeca Palis, coordinator of National Accounts at the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
GDP grew 0.9% in the third quarter compared to the second quarter, after an increase of 1.4% in the previous quarter.
“The more restrictive monetary policy has no effect on this third quarter, since the first increase (in the Selic) was already at the end of September”, recalled Palis, adding that, even though the reference period does not calculate the cycle of increases , the impact of interest on the economy is usually lagged.
“In the third quarter there isn’t as much of an impact, despite interest rates being at a high level,” he added.
GDP completed thirteen consecutive quarters of growth, reaching a new record level in the third quarter of 2024.
“It is at a high level, because we grew a lot in the first quarter (1.1%), and in the second quarter (1.4%). But it could also be some slowdown, not very relevant yet, in the economy”, said Palis.
In the third quarter result, an increase of 0.9%, Palis said that the highlight was the continued growth in household consumption (1.5%), but accompanied by an even greater increase in investment (2.1%) , with all its components also expanding.
On the supply side, services (0.9%) and the manufacturing industry (1.3%) increased GDP, the researcher concluded.
