The re-election of Mayor Fuad Noman () after a second round against Bolsonaro state deputy Bruno Engler (PL) may have been a preview of the clash between political groups that will compete in the elections for the Government of Minas Gerais in 2026.
In addition to rekindling the hopes of centrist names, Fuad’s victory also confirmed the good performance in the state of the party led nationally by Gilberto Kassab. With 142 city halls, the PSD almost doubled the number of Minas Gerais cities administered in relation to the 2020 election, when it won 78 municipalities.
The electoral performance qualifies the party to once again have a candidate in the state election — in 2022, Alexandre Kalil (now without a party) lost to (Novo) in the first round.
This time, the president of , , and the minister (Mines and Energy) emerge as the main names of the acronym for the next dispute.
The assessment is that either of the two would be supported by left-wing parties, whose performance in the election in the capital of Minas Gerais was considered disappointing. The idea would be to replicate right from the start the alliance that was formed around Fuad’s candidacy in the second round in the capital of Minas Gerais.
Until 2026, however, the PSD has its internal challenges to deal with. The party coexists locally with , in which it holds positions in the Lula (PT) government and, at the same time, supports politicians opposed to the president.
In Minas, the party is part of Zema’s support base in the Legislative Assembly and maintained its position even after the governor supported rivals of the PES candidate in the election in the capital of Minas Gerais.
For the president of the PSDB in the state, state deputy Cássio Soares (PSDB), the solution involves dialogue.
“We really have an obstacle, which is Minister Alexandre [Silveira]which operates in a field, and a group of 15 deputies, including state and federal, who act as the basis of the state government. Until 2026 we will dialogue to reach an understanding”, he said.
The leader of the Minas Gerais PSD also ruled out defining a name for the 2026 dispute and said that the two listed so far have different profiles.
“Rodrigo [Pacheco] has a more discreet way of doing politics, Alexandre has a more fierce way”, said the deputy.
When occupying the position of president of Congress, Pacheco avoided directly criticizing Governor Zema, a role that was left to Silveira.
People close to the senator, however, remember the last time the president was in Minas and that Pacheco is responsible for the project that renegotiates the debts of over-indebted states.
The proposal, designed especially to resolve the issue of Minas, a state that accumulates liabilities of around R$165 billion with the Union, and awaits a vote in the Chamber.
The level of state debt should remain one of the main challenges for the next governor. This year, the Zema government managed, through an agreement with the federal government mediated by the STF (Supreme Federal Court), as if it were in the RRF (Tax Recovery Regime), which guarantees better conditions.
Adherence to the program, however, depends on approval in the Legislative Assembly, where state management faces resistance.
If there is uncertainty in the PSD, Zema has already defined his name for the state government dispute. It will be that of the vice-governor, Mateus Simões (Novo).
“He has been my right-hand man, he knows public administration and there is no other person as prepared. I will work hard for him to be elected and continue our administration”, said the governor at the end of last month.
Mateus is considered more skilled than his godfather in political articulation, and his ability to dialogue is praised even by opponents.
However, the responsibility for having articulated the governor’s support for two candidates defeated in the election in the capital of Minas Gerais this year —Mauro Tramonte () in the first round and Engler in the second—weighs against him.
The right-wing field in 2026 should also be contested by a group that recently emerged in politics and whose main electoral asset is social media.
This nucleus includes Engler himself, the most voted state deputy in the history of Minas, (PL), the most voted federal deputy in the country, and Cleitinho Azevedo (Republicans), who defeated Alexandre Silveira in the Senate race in 2022.
The names of the last two are mentioned for the race for state government in 2026, but the tendency is for Nikolas to run again for the Chamber of Deputies. In an interview last month, the deputy said he did not want to “burn cartridges”.
“Suppose I take the Government of Minas with Lula as president. I have no doubt that he will make everything from heaven to hell so that I cannot govern. For you to actually govern, you need to have resources sent to the state”, he told the newspaper O Tempo.
In the Minas Gerais PL, the intention is also for Nikolas, considered a voting phenomenon, to run again for the Chamber to help elect a larger party bench in the state.
Cleitinho, who has “zero interest” in the position of governor, changed his speech in recent weeks.
The Republicans, his party, doubled the number of municipalities under management in the state and became the second party with the most city halls, with 83.
In October, after participating in a rally in support of Engler alongside Nikolas, former president Jair Bolsonaro (PL) and other supporters, Cleitinho said he was considering the hypothesis.
This month, his twin brother, Gleidson Azevedo (Novo), mayor of Divinópolis, in the center-west of Minas Gerais, said that the senator “will be governor of Minas.”
X-ray | Minas Gerais
- Estimated population (2024): 21.322.691
- Voters (2024): 16.428.909
- Territorial area: 586,5 mil km²
- PIB per capita (2021): R$ 40,1 mil
- State budget (2024): R$ 123.5 billion
- Investment budget (2024): R$8.1 billion
Governor
Senators
- Rodrigo Pacheco (PSDB) – 2019-2027
- Carlos Viana ( Podemos ) – 2019-2027
- Cleitinho Azevedo (Republicans) – 2023-2031
Number of city halls by elected parties in 2024
- PSD: 142
- Republicans: 83
- PP: 74
- União Brasil: 69
- PL: 53
Voting by party for mayor in 2024 (1st round)
- PSD: 1.731.109
- Republicans: 625.061
- PP: 621.659
- União Brasil: 604.568
- PL: 518.910
Sources: IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics), TSE (Superior Electoral Court) and LOA (Annual Budget Law)
