He counts the hours of his mandate before the motions of censure presented by the left and the extreme right are activated on Wednesday at 4:00 p.m. The possibilities of a last-minute agreement, as the day progressed, were reduced. The political groups involved in the process to overthrow his Executive did not show any signs of being willing to make concessions. And Barnier, who if nothing remedies him will become the most fleeting prime minister of the Fifth Republic, tried to speed up his options by making a desperate appeal for stability from the two prime-time news programs, to which he gave an interview to address the citizens. “Stability is for me to continue,” he proclaimed.
Barnier appeared on television in a hurry to explain himself, disconcerted by the motion – which he did not expect – and attacking those who launched it. “Mélenchon and his friends,” he said, referring to the head of La Francia Insumisa. He assured that the door is still open, and that he also hopes to continue improving some of the budget in the coming hours, but he did not clarify with whom or how. “This is not about turning this into marketing,” he replied regarding possible concessions in the revaluation of pensions. “Do you talk to political forces?” the interviewers asked him. “Well, I do it now with the citizens, thanks to you,” he responded, amplifying in prime time an undeniable feeling of loneliness. The prime minister clung to office as best he could. He spoke again about a serious situation, like hours before in Parliament, and recalled that the markets will punish a panorama of uncertainty. “Look at the risk premium,” he wrote.
The serious words, curiously, contrasted with the apparent calm with which the President of the Republic, Emmanuel Macron, faced the issue from Saudi Arabia. “We should not scare people with these things, we have a strong economy,” he urged on the sidelines of the events of his state visit, according to Le Figaro. “France is a rich, solid country that has made many reforms and maintains them, which has stable institutions and a stable Constitution,” he said. Furthermore, Macron assured that he “could not believe” that the motion of censure was going to be voted on. ““My priority is stability”, He continued to end up settling the issue of his possible resignation, as demanded by the left and the extreme right. “It is political fiction. It turns out that, if I am here in front of you, it is because I have been elected twice by the French people. “I am extremely proud of it and I will honor that trust with all the energy I have until the last second to be useful to the country,” he added.
but full of difficulties, which Barnier has had to navigate since he was appointed by the President of the Republic, Emmanuel Macron, last September. His name emerged as the least harmful solution to the sensitivities of the majority of the government, given that the head of state refused to accept. But from day one, Barnier had to deal with the reality of a parliamentary composition that did not favor him and in which Marine Le Pen and her National Rally would become arbiters of the contest.
The prime minister arrived with the aura of a skilled negotiator after the successful agreement he wove for the United Kingdom’s departure from the European Union. As the days went by, Barnier discovered that it is difficult to negotiate when there is a very clear agenda on the other side and, above all, that negotiation is not needed. If nothing remedies it, Barnier will now derail in the first corner of his mandate. “Let everyone assume their responsibilities. “I assume mine,” the prime minister launched from the tribune of the National Assembly, looking towards the opposition benches. Barnier tried to transfer the pressure to the other side of the pitch. But the reality is that, almost 24 hours after the announcement of the two motions of censure, he is increasingly closer to being the most fleeting head of government of the Fifth Republic.
The situation is extremely worrying and puts France on the wire. The French public deficit, which in 2023 rose to 5.5% of GDP – which led the European Commission to open an excessive deficit file – now risks worsening to 5.6% this year and even up to 6.2% in 2025 if the urgent measures included in the budget are not taken. Far from being applied – if the Government falls, the current accounts would have to be extended – the political turbulence has ended up infecting the markets and the rate differential between France and Germany (the so-called risk premium, an indicator of the country’s solvency). It expanded again on Monday, reaching close to 86 basis points compared to 81 at the close of Friday.
