The Brazilian Championship reaches its final stretch this week with Botafogo depending only on itself to be champion, with the possibility of the title being defined this Wednesday (4), one round in advance.
With two rounds to go before the end of the competition, Botafogo leads with 73 points, compared to 70 for second-place Palmeiras.
Buoyed by the historic victory of the Copa Libertadores against Atlético-MG on Saturday (30), the players from Rio de Janeiro have a large advantage, with a 78.1% probability of also lifting the Brazilian Cup, according to calculations by the Department of Mathematics at UFMG (Federal University of Minas Gerais).
The only team still with any chance of taking the cup from the Rio team, Palmeiras appears with 21.9%. Inter and Fortaleza still had residual chances of winning the championship until the last round, but they ended any pretense in this regard after the defeats to Flamengo and Vitória, on Sunday (1st).
In the 37th and penultimate round, Botafogo travels to Porto Alegre to face Internacional, in Beira-Rio. The game takes place this Wednesday, at 9:30 pm (Brasília time). In the first round, Botafogo won 1-0, with a goal from Luiz Henrique, against Nilton Santos.
Botafogo could be champions on Wednesday itself, depending on the score of the game against Inter and the result of the match between Cruzeiro and Palmeiras, on the same day and time, at Mineirão.
If Botafogo beats Inter, they will be champions one round in advance, as long as Palmeiras do not beat Cruzeiro. If they draw, they need Abel Ferreira’s team to lose. In case of defeat, the decision goes to the last round, regardless of the result in Belo Horizonte.
Palmeiras, in turn, needs to win the match against Cruzeiro to take the dispute for the cup to the last round. If they draw, they need to hope that Botafogo draws or loses to Internacional. In case of defeat, only the triumph of the team from Rio Grande do Sul will ensure that the team continues to have a chance of becoming champion.
If both teams end their participation in the championship with the same number of points, the title will be defined by the tiebreaker criteria. The first is the number of victories — the two have 21 —, followed by the goal difference — 28 for Botafogo and 27 for Palmeiras — and the goals scored — 56 for Botafogo and 58 for Palmeiras.
In the 38th round, Botafogo hosts São Paulo, at Nilton Santos, and Palmeiras faces Fluminense, at Allianz.
Shortly after the celebrations for winning the Libertadores in Rio de Janeiro, Botafogo coach, Artur Jorge, sought to turn the squad’s attention to the team’s next commitments. “It’s time to end the party, Wednesday has another grand final, we want to win the championship. The objective is Wednesday and next weekend. The objective becomes the national title”, said the Portuguese.
Current 4th place and already with a guaranteed place for the 2025 Libertadores — with no major aspirations for the season —, Colorado is coming off a 3-2 defeat to Flamengo, at Maracanã, which put an end to the team’s 16-match unbeaten run. by Roger Machado.
Cruzeiro is 9th, comes from draws with Grêmio and Bragantino, and is still fighting for a place in the preliminary phase of the Libertadores, with a 32.6% probability.
The two main candidates for places in the pre-Libertadores are Bahia and Corinthians.
Six teams still in the fight against relegation
With Cuiabá and Atlético Goianiense no longer likely to remain in Série A, six teams are still fighting to escape the two remaining spots in Z4 until the last round.
Criciúma and Bragantino, which currently occupy the relegation zone, have the greatest chances of playing in the second division in 2025, with an 85.8% and 80.8% probability of relegation, respectively.
In the next round, the team from Santa Catarina hosts Flamengo (3rd), at the Heriberto Hülse stadium, in Criciúma, while Bragantino plays against Athletico Paranaense (14th), at the Ligga Arena, in Curitiba.
The first team outside the relegation zone, Fluminense still appears with a 28.3% risk of competing in Series B next year. The Rio tricolor has not won in six rounds, with five draws and one defeat, and faces Cuiabá on Thursday (5), at Maracanã.
Juventude (3%), Athletico Paranaense (2%) and Atlético Mineiro (0.11%) also have a small probability of relegation.
To arrive at the estimates, UFMG mathematicians take into account the history of wins, draws and defeats of each team in the championship. Each player’s profiles are then projected onto the remaining games through millions of simulations. Based on these results, they indicate which are most likely to beat their rivals in the next duels, also considering who is the home team.
