A night of political upheaval in South Korea has shaken stability in a key US democratic ally – sending shockwaves through the region and Washington at a time of great global tension.
South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol declared martial law on Tuesday night in a surprise decree that was annulled hours later following overwhelming opposition from across the political spectrum to what was widely seen as a violation of the country’s vibrant democracy.
The move, which Yoon said was necessary to “save the country from anti-state forces” trying to destroy the “constitutional order of liberal democracy,” was met with protests in Seoul and growing calls for the president to resign.
The surprising event appears to have caught Washington off guard. This is a disturbing reality for the United States military, which has about 30,000 soldiers and its largest overseas base in South Korea, serving as a check against a belligerent North Korea and a counterweight to an aggressive China in a strategically critical region.
The turmoil has the potential to have significant ramifications at a time of deepening geopolitical fault lines in Asia, when both North Korea and China are strengthening their alignment with Russia, which is waging war against Ukraine.
The leaders of Pyongyang, Beijing and Moscow are likely watching developments in Seoul, given their potential to undermine a key bastion of US power in the region – and all eyes are now on North Korea, which may be interested in using political chaos to its advantage.
“Big Ramifications”
The alliance between the US and South Korea has long been considered by both countries as a cornerstone of peace in the region, where North Korea continues to threaten South Korea and the US with its illegal weapons program.
This threat has only become more serious as North Korea has intensified its partnership with Russia, sending ammunition, missiles and soldiers, according to intelligence, to help Moscow’s war against Ukraine.
“Any instability in South Korea has major ramifications for our policies in the Indo-Pacific,” retired colonel Cedric Leighton told CNN’s Wolf Blitzer, noting that US troops in the country are prepared for a scenario of ” fight tonight” [termo usado pelas forças armadas norte-americanas na região que significa a prontidão para combate] against North Korea. “The less stability there is in South Korea, the worse it will be for us to achieve our political objectives.”
US President Joe Biden has worked regularly during his term to strengthen the US partnership with South Korea, meeting with Yoon several times, referring to the South Korean leader as a “great friend” and , earlier this year, handing over his “Summit for Democracy” to Yoon to host in South Korea.
Biden’s efforts also included a historic 2023 summit at Camp David with Japan and South Korea, where the US president bypassed historic distrust between the two US allies to broker enhanced trilateral coordination.
A spokesperson for the US National Security Council expressed “relief” after Yoon reversed course in what the spokesperson described as a “troubling statement”, adding that “democracy is at the foundation” of the US-Korea alliance. from the South.
Despite U.S. assurances that the alliance remains “solid,” Yoon’s surprise move could cast a degree of doubt on the partnership and weaken the growing Japan-South Korea partnership, according to observers.
Furthermore, it adds a new level of uncertainty on the eve of the return to the White House of President-elect Donald Trump, who has already expressed his skepticism regarding the financial agreement between the US and South Korea on the hosting of American troops.
“Yoon’s actions will most likely raise questions about South Korea’s reliability and predictability as an ally and partner in the eyes of the United States and Japan,” said Rachel Minyoung Lee, senior fellow at the Stimson Center, think tank em Washington.
“This is serious considering the fact that there is now a stronger nuclear component than ever in the (US-South Korea) alliance,” he added, pointing to a 2023 mechanism that updates cooperation on nuclear deterrence between the US and South Korea, which does not have its own nuclear weapons but depends on the US arsenal.
Problematic neighborhood
The political turmoil also creates a potential opening for Kim Jong-un to capitalize on the chaos.
The North Korean leader is known for choosing opportune political moments to carry out major weapons tests – for example, firing a new intercontinental ballistic missile days before last month’s US presidential elections.
“We know that North Korea likes to ridicule South Korea’s democratic system whenever there are riots in Seoul,” said Edward Howell, a professor of politics at the University of Oxford, in the United Kingdom, who focuses on the Korean Peninsula.
“We should not be surprised if Pyongyang exploits the internal crisis in South Korea to its advantage, whether rhetorically or otherwise,” he said.
The developments — and the potential, now, for a leadership change in South Korea — are also likely to be closely watched by Beijing and Moscow, which are deeply opposed to the U.S. military presence in Asia.
Chinese leader Xi Jinping and his officials, in particular, have watched angrily as the US strengthens its partnerships with allies in the region, in the face of Washington’s concerns about the growing threat from Beijing and deepening security coordination. with Moscow.
And Yoon, who has taken a tougher stance on North Korea than many of his predecessors, has been a willingly steadfast partner of the United States.
Yoon’s government has also suggested that the deployment of North Korean troops to Ukraine could lead it to reassess the level of military support it gives the war-torn country, which it does not directly supply with lethal weapons.
According to Howell, all of this raises the international stakes in the current political moment, regardless of the result for Yoon.
“At a time when South Korea’s interests in the Ukraine war have gained prominence, given North Korea’s involvement, Seoul’s cooperation with allies cannot be undermined by internal divisions,” he noted.
