Michel Barnier, French Prime Minister
“There are many political crises in Europe” that influence our economy. “That the fall will be postponed,” says the economist in relation to interest rates. For the entire European economy, there are “significant external risks”.
The economist João Duquein a comment space on , stated that the political crisis currently experienced in France after the government should affect the Portuguese economy.
Still, he remains little alarmist: there are “many political crises in Europe” and “we are all affected by the euro and inflation“, he guarantees, so the situation is not completely new.
“The heart of Europe has very strong palpitations. We are seeing Europe eroding its unity and we are seeing other blocs of economies increasing it. In the middle is the Europe without the ability to unite and defend, with a common policy”, points out João Duque.
The descent of interest rates in Portugal could, therefore, be compromised, and should, at least, slow down after the French political situation. “I hope you don’t compromise, but there will be a postponement of the descent,“, guarantees the economist.
According to the newspaper, France could enter 2025 without even seeing its State Budget approved. A new crisis triggered by France, the second largest economy in the euro, could put the Europe in a fragile situation.
“France is on the opposite path to countries that, like Portugal and Greece, were in the eye of the storm at the beginning of the last decade”, with a debt measured as a percentage of GDP of 112.1% this year and which is expected to rise to 117 .1% in 2026, “with a 6.15% public deficit and without a glimpse of being able to change the trajectory”says the economist Antônio Nogueira Leite.
“If markets suddenly focus on France — for example, if the government falls or the incapacity persists for much longer — the euro zone enters the risk zone. One thing was the support programs for pricing of Portuguese or Greek debt. Another, much larger, would be a unavailability to finance France and its public debt“, comments the economist.
“I have no idea what is being done, but I admit that at one point the French start to pressure the ECB to ease the cost of financing for them. We must hope for the best but prepare ourselves for a very difficult period, at a time when the e is leaving, and the external risks are significant“.
Montenegro and the “uncertainties”
Prime Minister Luís Montenegro has also reacted to the economic threat that could come as an addition to the French and German political crisis. He guarantees that he is concerned about “uncertainties”.
Asked by the newspaper whether France could be the new Greece, with regard to financial instability and the drag of the Eurozonethe Prime Minister refused this scenario, but, he admits, “It’s a worrying situation, for bringing together political and financial instability”.
Even though he admits that “the uncertainties that are on the horizon” in Germany and France and these could “condition the near future”, the Portuguese Prime Minister sees the European economic crisis as a way to put Portugal in the spotlight: the Portuguese can now “impose themselves” in the international context, making our country a place of safe investment.
“From the point of view of our national interest, we can see ourselves in Europe, and from Europe also in the world, as a safe destination for investment and use of human and business capital, so that we can be more productive, efficient in creating wealth and, with that, put into motion our objective of growth and give durability to our trajectory [económica]”, said Montenegro this Tuesday.
