France continues to be plunged into political instability. After the early legislative elections in July, in which no party achieved a majority to govern alone, the fragile Government of Michel Barnier faces two motions of censure in Parliament that could dictate its downfall today.
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Three months after taking office, Michel Barnier’s French government faces a motion of censure in the National Assembly this Wednesday. The parliamentary debate on the Barnier executive’s budget proposals for 2025, which foresee 40 billion euros in spending cuts and 20 billion euros in tax increases, began at 3 pm in Lisbon.
At around 4:45 pm, the debate on the two motions of censure of the Government, presented by the extreme right of Marine Le Pen (RN) and the left-wing coalition Nova Frente Popular (NFP), should begin.
A spokesperson from each parliamentary bench must address the motions, starting with deputy Eric Coquerel of Unsubmissive France (LFI, far left), followed by Le Pen, socialists, Les Républicains (center-right), Greens and other centrist parties that make up the alliance of the current President, Emmanuel Macron.
The final vote on the two motions should begin at 6:45 pm in Lisbon, anticipating that it will last 45 minutes, says the Guardian. The motion most likely to be approved, leading to the collapse of the current French Government, is that of the NFP.
For any of the motions to pass, a minimum of 228 votes in favor is required. The news on whether the Government survives the motion or collapses is expected to arrive around 7:30 pm in Lisbon.
Before the debates began, government spokeswoman Maud Bregeon accused the most extreme wings of the hemicycle, Le Pen’s RN and Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s LFI, of being “chaos engineers” – together, the two Political movements have enough votes to overthrow the executive.
Within a few hours, said Bregeon quoted by BFM-TV, “the struggles of the RN and the NFP will converge” and “each deputy will then make his choice with this knowledge and will have to assume before his voters the responsibility of having been leading to a long-term weakening of the country”.
How did we get here?
The oldest roots go back to the European elections in June, after which Macron decided to call early elections in the face of his coalition’s poor performance. The French went to the polls a month later, resulting in a Parliament fragmented into three in which no party or coalition won a majority to govern alone.
Michel Barnier, who a few years ago headed the Brexit negotiations on behalf of the EU, ended up being appointed by the President to head the current centrist government, leading to accusations from the right and left of not respecting the election results.
Because the country went to the polls in July, the Constitution prevents the President from calling new legislative elections within a year, so the potential collapse of the Government will lead to a situation of even greater instability, with the country handed over to a Government of management until the second half of next year. Barnier has already said that he is not available to head this executive on an interim basis if he does not survive the motion of censure.
Immediately, the big issue is related to the Budget for 2025. Barnier presented a budget proposal that, according to the opposition, brings austerity to France, in an attempt to reduce the deficit, which this year should be at 6.1%, more than double the 3% maximum limit imposed by Brussels.
What does Macron say?
As happened after the early legislative elections in July, the head of state is under enormous pressure to resign, something he assured again this week that he will not do, promising to carry on his presidency “until his last breath”, that is, until presidential elections scheduled for mid-2027.
Before returning from a state visit to Saudi Arabia, Emmanuel Macron told journalists that what the NFP and RN are doing is “pretend politics” and that he is President because voters decided so “twice”.
“We shouldn’t scare people with these things. We have a strong economy,” he said, when faced with the fact that French public debt was, last week, equated to that of Greece during the Eurozone crisis in 2012. This This is the big reason why all of Europe is keeping an eye on Paris, fearful of a new single currency crisis (also) fueled by the unsustainability of French debt, at a time of enormous geopolitical tensions.
the leader of the NFP alliance, from the PS (center-left), accused the President of abandoning the French. “Instead of making short statements during a visit to Saudi Arabia, Macron has to speak to the French people. How can he leave the French people in this uncertainty just before Christmas?”
What happens next?
The immediate concern is the Budget for 2025. One option would be for Macron to give in to RN’s budgetary demands and appoint a prime minister supported by the far-right party, which would imply abandoning efforts to reduce the budget deficit.
Most likely, Macron will ask Barnier to stay in office to deal with day-to-day issues, including proposed emergency legislation that would roll back spending limits and tax provisions from 2024. This would avoid a government shutdown, but also that the savings of 60 billion through spending cuts and tax increases would not happen. And Barnier has already said he is not available to continue in office if the government collapses.
An interim Government headed by another figure can invoke the OE 2025 to approve it without having to vote in Parliament if the majority of deputies vote against this proposal by December 20th. Legal experts say, however, that this is muddy territory that opens the door to major political contestation.
In the long term, Macron has few options to appoint a new prime minister and a new executive. Among the names mentioned in the center-right are Sebastien Lecornu, Defense Minister very loyal to the president, and François Bayrou. On the left, he could eventually opt for Bernard Cazeneuve, a former socialist prime minister who was interior minister. But he also faces votes against from a large part of Parliament.
