Bitcoin has made history. The pioneering cryptocurrency has reached the moon. “To the moon!”, hundreds of his followers on social networks cry out in English, euphoric about the new highs. After several days of trying, this Thursday, at the edge of three in the morning, it finally reached $100,000 per unit. He rally seems to have no brakes since: since then it has risen more than 50%. That has pushed its capitalization to $2 trillion, surpassing the value of the global silver market. If it were a company, it would be the sixth most valuable in the world, ahead of Saudi Aramco, Meta and Tesla and only behind Apple, Nvidia, Microsoft, Amazon and Google. Bitcoin, which accounts for 55% of the entire crypto market, is thus immersed in a golden age a few hours after (the SEC, for its acronym in English) and defender of cryptocurrencies, as president of this supervisory body in replacement of Gary Gensler, a villain for crypto believers for his investigations into the sector, who will leave his position on January 20.
The main impetus for the price of the call digital gold reach six figures. The Republican tycoon’s winks during the election campaign have resonated with the crypto community, which is now clinging to his promises. The plan to create a strategic reserve, the aforementioned change in the leadership of the stock market regulator, which had been hostile to crypto assets in recent years, as well as the promise of lax regulation open the doors to a new scenario for the industry . A “golden era,” according to Binance CEO Richard Teng.
More favorable US regulation for the sector was the goal that crypto companies and investors had been pursuing for some time. And now, with the new Republican administration, they could see their wishes come true: Trump would be holding talks with the industry about the possible creation of a position dedicated exclusively to digital asset policy,” according to Bloomberg. If created, it would be the first crypto-specific position in the White House.
Mireya Fernández, head of Bitpanda for Central, Southern and Eastern Europe, affirms that the uncertainty has come to an end. “The main source of instability has disappeared and, as a result, one of the largest economies in the world, the United States, is prepared to implement liberal and favorable regulation for cryptocurrencies. Which represents a significant step forward,” he explains.
Adding to the euphoria of the sector are record inflows of money into bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which have exceeded $100 billion in total assets. Its approval has opened the door to greater participation by investment funds and banks, giving legitimacy to bitcoin as a financial asset. “Since their approval in January, they have become the most successful products in history,” says Manuel Villegas, digital asset analyst at Julius Baer, who believes that strong flows into exchange-traded funds, in addition to an extended positioning in the market of futures, have supported prices. The launch of the first options for some of these ETFs, in fact, is another step towards broader adoption. “It gives investors better tools to hedge directional exposures or further speculate on future bitcoin price performance,” he adds. The analysts consulted agree that these instruments encourage access to this asset by institutional clients, further consolidating the market.
The , as well as the countdown to the entry into force of the regulation of the crypto market in Europe, which will become a reality at the end of December with the MiCA regulation, also support the growing optimism of companies and investors towards these assets. The integration of cryptocurrencies into traditional financial systems, through the offering of crypto services by banks, opens the possibility of mass adoption among retail savers, a gold mine for the industry. Faced with this scenario, Mireya Fernández has no doubts: “The market is eager and prices continue to show an upward trend. The fact that bitcoin has reached $100,000 does not simply represent a number, but a real turning point for the crypto sector.”
Carlos Salinas, professor of the master’s degree in blockchain and investment in digital assets of the IEB, considers that another is the possibility that the United States can create a reserve of this cryptocurrency. “Government adoption in which bitcoin is viewed as a reserve asset is key,” he says. For this expert, once the North American country opts for this project, nations like Russia, China, Brazil or India will not want to be left out. “At the last bitcoin highs in 2021 we saw FOMO [miedo a quedarse fuera, fear of missing out en inglés] of the retailer, but in this current bullish phase we are experiencing institutional FOMO and we do not know how big it can become,” he warns.
Beyond the hypothetical US state reserves, companies’ commitment to diversifying their treasury also involves these assets. For four years, the software company, founded in 1989, has bet everything on bitcoin. In 2020 it began to buy this asset, in theory to hedge against inflation. In a short time, the company became a bitcoin accumulator: it sells debt to be able to buy this digital asset. No company owns as many bitcoins as it does: as of December 1, it had approximately 402,000 bitcoins on its balance sheet, with an approximate value of more than $40 billion. Therefore, it is no coincidence that the company’s price moves at the pace of this cryptocurrency and that its shares are now skyrocketing: they stand at $406, with an increase of around 500% in 2024.
Noelle Achenson, newsletter author Crypto is Macro Nowexplains that bitcoin that is transferred to storage-only addresses is removed from circulation. And, less is the supply available for new buyers, many of whom are pushed to buy by the fear of being left out of the rise: “This is one of the reasons why bitcoin moves quickly when it starts to rise: “It is a race for a decreasing quantity of one of the few tradable assets whose supply is not influenced at all by price,” he asserts.
Finally, analysts also point out that part of this, which affects the amount of bitcoin in the market and influences its price: by reducing the rewards offered to miners, the amount of cryptocurrency in circulation decreases, which can translate into an increase in its value. “Historically the halving It is considered a bullish event that usually increases the price of the cryptocurrency, although not immediately, but progressively. If we take as reference the halving From 2016 and 2020, bitcoin rose on average in the 12 months before and after the event by 750%, while now it is rising by 200%,” recalls Manuel Pinto, market analyst.
From the industry they are optimistic: for Leif Ferreira, CEO of exchange Spanish Bit2Me, the $100,000 milestone “confirms the growing confidence in bitcoin as a revolutionary asset. Its ability to thrive amid volatility reinforces its relevance in the “. But all that glitters is not gold. Joaquim Matinero, professor of the master’s degree in blockchain and investment in financial assets of the IEB, believes that we should not look away from the risks that could hinder the advance of bitcoin. “One of the most obvious is regulation. Although the trend towards clearer regulations can be positive in terms of legitimation, it can also bring restrictions. The macroeconomic environment, with restrictive monetary policies, can also negatively impact risk assets like bitcoin,” he details.
For his part, Manuel Pinto focuses on Trump’s promises and points out that the greatest risk is that high expectations are not met or that some regulatory obstacle arises. Add to this the growing correlation of bitcoin with the markets. “Right now it maintains a correlation close to 0.60 with the MSCI World, so a possible fall in the markets, although it is not our base scenario, could also disrupt its evolution,” he details. Finally, volatility, which is the trademark of this asset, continues to be a risk factor for investors, especially in times of global uncertainty due to the intensification of geopolitical tensions.
