The State Meteorological Agency (Aemet) issued this Thursday for the first time. This means that the meteorological situation is especially serious and worrying, with a 70% probability that the forecasts will be fulfilled, in full, whose departure operation begins this Thursday and in which 6.6 million trips are expected only by road. . The first storm of this winter will affect all of Spain with cold and with other adverse elements, especially the northern half of the peninsula and the Balearic Islands from Saturday at least until Tuesday. Throughout Spain, it is a holiday on Friday, Constitution Day, while Andalusia, Aragon, Asturias, Castilla y León, Extremadura and Murcia have moved the Immaculate Conception from Sunday to Monday.
Between Saturday and Sunday, a corridor will be created between two areas of opposing pressures through which winter will suddenly enter after days and days in which temperatures have been abnormally high for the time – records have even been broken: Santa Cross of Tenerife ―. “The interaction of the Atlantic anticyclone, together with a storm centered over central Europe, will give rise to a strong entry from the north that will cause the intensification of a storm of snow, rain, wind and sea, which will affect a good part of the Peninsula and the Balearic Islands. “, explains Aemet in its special notice.
Due to the arctic nature of the mass – an adjective that in meteorology means that it arrives directly from the Pole and very quickly – that will penetrate through the north of the peninsula, “a notable thermal drop and snowfall are expected in large areas of the northern half of the peninsula” . And not only in the mountains, but at very low altitudes, which complicates circulation.
On the first day, Saturday, “a cold front will reach the extreme north of the peninsula, leaving in its wake significant snowfall in the Pyrenees and the Cantabrian mountain range, with a snow level that during the second part of the day will drop to 900 – 1,000 meters. and even up to 500-600 at the end of the day in the Pyrenees.” Along with the snow, another adverse actor will be the wind. “Very strong gusts, which could exceed 100 kilometers per hour, are expected in the northeast of the peninsula, in high areas of the rest of the northern half and in the Balearic Islands, without ruling out that they may also affect high areas of the southern half.” This gale will result in a coastal storm in the Cantabrian Sea, which will extend to the Balearic Sea during the second half of the day.
The second, on Sunday, the mass will spread “to the rest of the Peninsula and the Balearic Islands, causing a generalized temperature drop, which will be notable in large areas.” In principle, the most likely scenario is that the snowfall “affects other mountain systems in the northern half of the peninsula, with a low probability of extending to surrounding areas of the northern plateau.” The elevation will be between 500 to 700 meters in the northeast of the peninsula and 800 to 1,000 in the rest of the northern half. The snowfall will be heavier and will fall in the Cantabrian mountain range and the Pyrenees. In addition, the maritime storm will continue in the Cantabrian Sea and the Balearic Sea and the wind storm will double, so much so that it will be “the peak day for this phenomenon, mainly in the area around the Balearic Islands and the northeast quadrant of the peninsula, especially in the Pyrenees.”
As of Monday, uncertainty about the evolution of the storm increases, but a priori It is expected that “this winter episode will continue” and it is not ruled out that “locally the snowfall will extend to other high areas of the southern half, with snow levels that could remain low on Monday and Tuesday.” On the other hand, the maritime and wind storm will tend “to progressively subside during Monday and Tuesday.”
Will snowfall be very important? Yes. Throughout Sunday and Monday, accumulations of more than 40 centimeters are expected in surrounding mountain areas of the Cantabrian mountain range and the Pyrenees above 1,200 meters. Starting Tuesday, with greater uncertainty, it will continue to snow with relatively low snow levels, but the snowfall will be “less significant than the previous two days.”
Is this a cold wave? No, although it will be very cold. “For now, it doesn’t seem like it’s going to be cold enough to call it a cold wave, but it is the first winter episode of the season,” Aemet spokesperson Rubén del Campo clarifies to this newspaper. On Saturday temperatures will drop in the north, and notably in mountainous areas, although in the southeast they could still be around 25°. On Sunday, the thermal drop will be noticeable throughout Spain and will be notable in the eastern half and the Balearic Islands. There will be frost in mountain areas, as well as on the northern plateau and in the moors of the central area. The atmosphere will be cold and cities like Burgos, León or Pamplona will barely reach 5°. In the rest of a good part of the interior, thermometers will remain below 10°.
On Monday, temperatures even lower. Thus, there will be widespread frosts, although weak, in the interior, except in the Ebro valley and in the southwest of the Peninsula, and also cold during the day, with many cities in the interior of the northern half below 5° and in the central zone and inside the southern half, below 10°. The cold will continue on Tuesday and the frost will persist in the interior during the following days, although by mid-week this winter appetizer will end and temperatures will begin to recover.
