How is the fight against the fall in the Brasileirão? See accounts and probabilities

Four teams reach the last round of the Brazilian Championship fighting against relegation to Series B of the national competition. The final round of the tournament takes place next Sunday (8).

Atlético-MG, Fluminense, Athletico-PR and Red Bull Bragantino are the clubs trying to avoid being relegated in the last round. Cuiabá, Atlético-GO and Criciúma have already had their relegations completed.

According to the Department of Mathematics at the Federal University of Minas Gerais (UFMG), Bragantino is the team most at risk of falling. The probability is 67.9%. The team is in the relegation zone, in 17th position, with 41 points. Also according to UFMG, Athletico-PR’s risk of falling is 16.8%. Fluminense’s probability is 11.5%. Atlético-MG’s risk is 3.8%.

Whoever wins in the last round will be guaranteed in Serie A. Even Bragantino, which is currently within the relegation zone, only depends on its own strengths to avoid falling to the second division.

On Sunday, all clashes in the last round take place at 4 pm. Bragantino hosts the already relegated Criciúma, at the Nabi Abi Chedid stadium. Atlético-MG and Athletico-PR will face each other directly at Arena MRV, which will have closed doors, due to the punishment suffered by the Minas Gerais club. The team that wins will be free from Series B.

Fluminense, in turn, will have a difficult commitment against Palmeiras, at Allianz Parque. The São Paulo team needs victory to continue dreaming of the Brazilian Championship title. On the other hand, a draw for Fluminense will be enough to guarantee the Rio team’s permanence.

If Fluminense draws and Bragantino wins, the two teams will be tied with 44 points. The Rio team, however, would take advantage with one more victory. Considering these conditions, the two clubs will be in the elite if there is a winner in the game between Atlético-MG and Athletico-PR.

Red Bull Bragantino – 67,9%