The Arctic is on the verge of a critical environmental milestone that scientists say could happen as early as 2027. According to a new study, the region could record its first ice-free day of summer within three years.
This year, the minimum sea ice cover in the Arctic of just 2.65 million square kilometers is significantly lower than average of 4.25 million square kilometers recorded between 1979 and 1992.
Researchers ran 300 computer simulations to predict the future of the Arctic. Most of these scenarios predict that the first ice-free day of summer will occur between 2032 and 2043, but nine of them suggest that such could happen as early as 2027.
Quoted by , Céline Heuzé, from the University of Gothenburg, emphasizes that an ice-free day in the Arctic would mark a fundamental change, causing the Arctic Ocean to stop being a region covered in reflective ice and snow and become dominated by dark sea water. ocean.
This change would cause the ocean to absorb more solar heat, exacerbating global warming and making it difficult for sea ice to reform in subsequent years.
The loss of ice in the Arctic is also expected to disrupt global climate patterns. Studies suggest it could lead to more extreme weather events, including colder winters in southern Europe, heat waves in northern Europe and a greater frequency of wildfires in Scandinavia.
For example, in March 2022, some areas of the Arctic recorded temperatures 10°C higher than mediaa trend that continues to raise concerns.
Alexandra Jahn, from the University of Colorado, another co-author of the study, emphasizes that the disappearance of Arctic sea ice is inevitable, with ice-free months expected until the 2030s. However, the expert emphasizes that the reduction in gas emissions greenhouse effect can delay this outcome and help mitigate its impact.
This October was the second hottest on record, after 2023, with global average temperatures reaching 15.25°C. According to the Copernicus Climate Change Service, 2024 is almost certain to be the hottest year on record. Over the past 30 years, Arctic sea ice extent has declined by 12% per decade, and this year’s minimum extent was one of the lowest on record.
