He characterizes the choice of the retired lieutenant general as “the best possible”. Keith Kellogg for the position of special envoy for the and o Matthew Bryzaformer Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs for Europe and Eurasia during the presidency George Bush Jr. “Kellogg has a lot of experience as a general and also as his national security adviser Mike Pencevice president in his first term. Therefore, he knows both the operational and the strategic side of US national security policies, a prerequisite for being an effective envoy for Ukraine and Russia,” he says to “Vima”.
Although he does not know the exact plan of the new president for Ukraine, he considers it certain that Trump “will put pressure on Kiev and Moscow to stop the war and to ‘freeze’ the battle lines”. Once the war stops, the US president “will ask for security guarantees for Ukraine from Moscow and negotiations on Ukrainian territories will begin.”
What would be the best possible solution for the Ukrainian side?
“Ending the war would certainly be a positive development for Ukraine. However, it is the Ukrainians themselves who must decide what exactly they want for their country. Polls show a majority of Ukrainians want the war to end by accepting some degree of territorial concessions. We do not know what concessions will be made in the end. The best possible outcome for Ukraine, in my opinion, would be for Russia to withdraw all of its illegal invasion forces and guarantee the country’s security. For the future, the best scenario would be to join NATO.”
Will President Putin agree to negotiate or continue the war?
“The Russian president feels confident that he can continue to fight despite the enormous cost. But Russia, based on calculations by the British secret services, loses about 1,200-1,500 soldiers per day. It has redesigned its economy based on the progress of the war. The growth of the Russian economy was halted, with a negative impact for the future as well. That is why I believe that Putin will eventually agree to , precisely because the cost to Russia is so high. For now, though, he wants to keep fighting, hoping to convince Trump to pressure President Zelensky. The fact is that as long as Russia has Putin as its leader it will be a threat to Europe. The good news is that Europe has realized that Russia with Putin can only be an enemy.”
How do you interpret German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s recent phone call to Putin? Berlin has not given Kiev the green light for strikes inside Russia with long-range German Taurus missiles.
” in no way does it reflect that Euro-Russian relations are heading towards normalization or restoration. The German chancellor’s gesture is addressed to his internal audience, namely the industrialists who manipulated Angela Merkel by asking for cheap Russian natural gas. It is about his political survival. He wants to show that he tried.”
What could be the role of the EU in the developments for Ukraine and in the security of the European territories in the future?
“The EU is an economic union, not a defense one, so it cannot guarantee the security of Ukraine or the continent. If the accession criteria are relaxed, Ukraine may join the EU. To the question “who will protect European lands in a future attack?” the answer is “only NATO”. It’s designed for just that. The EU has relied heavily on US defense funding. It will take decades for Europeans to invest money to be able to take charge of their own security. NATO is therefore the “key” for European security.
In what direction could US-Russian relations change more generally after Trump’s return to the White House?
“Nobody knows exactly how they will shape up. Trump admires Putin because he does trade policy and is a dictator. But, in the end, Donald Trump likes Donald Trump more than anyone. And what makes him prouder than his works themselves is that he can close deals. But any attempt by Putin to eliminate Ukraine would never be accepted as a good deal.”
