A quarter of a century of fighting… and the rounds that still remain. The business This Friday, December 6, does not put an end to an agreement long desired by Brussels, but rather reveals a new gap within the Twenty-seven club.
“It has been made history“, celebrated Ursula von der Leyen at the signing ceremony in Montevideo, capital Uruguayanone of the South American countries that are part of Mercosur, along with Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay. There, a key step has been taken to a trade union closed years ago, but which could not yet be ratified for the environmental commitments demanded by the EU.
Now there was some rush to get it sealed, before the return of Donald Trump and his threat of tariffs around the world is official.
The president of the European Commission did not hide her euphoria at having overcome discrepancies to shape an enormous commercial area that will reach more than 700 million people without tariffs involved in exports; the greatest by extension of these characteristics. A “unique alliance” to send a “powerful message to the world,” added the Teutonic leader.
Brussels boasts that the new agreement with Mercosur will be a boost for nearly 60,000 European companies with currently exports to the South American market. Figures that rise to 4 billion euros al year that would be saved due to the withdrawal of customs.
For now, together with Von der Leyen, Germany and Spain They defend what they consider a “great economic opportunity“for the primary sector. This has been expressed Luis Planasconvinced that “Spain wins with the agreement”, despite the fiery criticism of the spanish countrysidewhich speaks of a pact “absolutely outrageous”.
While voices of ASAJA, COAG and UPA denounce that “can seriously harm European family agriculture and livestock farming”, the Minister of Agriculture insists that “our agri-food sector will be strengthened of this opening”.
For that to happen, several key milestones on the legislative path still need to be overcome. And that path does not seem easy or quick. Heavyweights of the ‘Twenty-Seven’ have already shown their negative roundaboutlike Italy, Poland or Netherlandsand one power as France promises ‘battle’ to overthrow a text blessed by states like Germany… and Spain, amid endless protests from the countryside.
The three ‘fields’ of battle in the EU itself: The Council…
While the four American states celebrate the agreement, in the case of the Argentine Javier Milei with more buts than his colleagues, in Europe the positions are more opposed. First of all, the EU needs the approval of the other two major community elements, the Council of the EU and the European Parliament. Furthermore, a possibility with many signs of being possible, which will also have to be ratified by the national parliaments of the 27 member states.
In the case of European Councilfigures matter a lot. As stated by EFE, so that it can be endorsed by the chamber of representation of the community countries. approval from at least 15 of the 27 countries is required and that these represent 65% of the total population of the EU.
In total, Brussels has some 450 million inhabitants. Therefore, it is not enough to add support to the cause. They must be population relevant. And in the battle against Mercosur, a key act such as France has already announced its ‘no’. The one represented by Macron is the most resonant voice in his rejection.
First, due to the geopolitical strength of the country, capable of generating influence on other community partners. And, furthermore, because of its demographic relevance. Their 68 million inhabitants son almost 15% of the EU total, to which could be added the 58 million from Italylos 36 of Poland or the 18 of the Netherlands, among others.
The European Parliament…
As for the European Parliament, it will have a long and cumbersome process before the potential green light. First they will intervene International Trade and Foreign Affairs Commissions, to then move on to the plenary session, where the final vote will be taken.
In Strasbourg arithmetic there are several keys at play. Firstly, as EFE points out, the foreseeable rejections on the part of the Patriots for Europe MEPs (with Marine Le Pen’s forces at the front), the Greens and others on the left.
But even more important may be the meaning of vote that they take parliamentarians that they do prevail he rejection from your country of origin to the orientation that the group of which they are part may have. French, Dutch, Italian or Polish can determine everything, depending on their positions.
national parliaments
As a potential last step, the final content of the agreement and its legal structure will define whether you need to receive the country-by-country internal approval. If it is a ‘mixed agreement’, Brussels may find itself in troublesince the different national parliaments could exercise the veto that some have already dropped.
The ‘battle’ that France promises to wage could also come from states like Austria, Poland or the Netherlands. For now, the Dutch and Austrian national chambers They have already shown their position against it.
EFE adds that the possibility of veto via national assemblies wouldn’t be the first. In 2016, the pact between the European Union and Canada hung by a thread by the refusal of the Parliament of Wallonia, the southern region of Belgium, to endorse it, until it finally gave in and gave a definitive yes.
