JOSÉ HENRIQUE MARIANTE
“Unacceptable.” The first comment coming from the Élysée Palace, seat of the French government, seemed expected by Ursula von der Leyen. In Montevideo, this Friday (6), the president of the European Commission dedicated part of her speech to addressing her side of the Atlantic. After listing a series of benefits that the EU-Mercosur agreement can bring to business on the continent, she declared that “this is the reality”. “Four billion less in tariffs for European companies, market opening, opportunities and jobs.”
The French response was immediate. “The Commission concludes negotiations with Mercosur, which is its responsibility, but the agreement has not been signed or ratified. This is not how the story ends”, declared Sophie Primas, resigning Minister of Foreign Trade. “The agreement has not entered into force.”
In fact, it didn’t go in. According to the Commission, the process now continues with the translation of the signed treaty into the bloc’s 24 official languages and the analysis of the legal aspects. If the commercial part is separated from the other topics of the document, it will not need approval in the Parliaments of the member countries, something that would never actually happen.
Several countries in the bloc, to a greater or lesser extent, oppose the treaty. France, Poland, which also repeated its criticisms this Friday, Austria and the Netherlands gained partial accession from Italy in the last few hours. Consolidated, the group would have the strength to block the process also on the simplified path: with at least four countries and representing at least 35% of the population, a dissent can veto the matter in the European Council, also called the Council of Ministers.
In the other instance required for approval, the European Parliament, in theory, the agreement would be approved more easily.
If the agreement is a “blockbuster”, as the Financial Times described it, it also “compromises only the European Commission”, pondered Le Monde, reproducing another statement from the embattled Emmanuel Macron government. These and other arguments will be part of intense dispute in the coming months.
Von der Leyen’s rush to close the possible document with the South Americans had been criticized by some economic sectors and countries. For France, the largest agricultural producer in Europe and most susceptible to farmer demonstrations, the Commission went beyond its role.
At a press conference, Olof Gill, spokesperson for the Agriculture and Trade entity, stated, hours before the agreement was announced, that Von der Leyen had a mandate to do so. “All treaties carry a political drama. This is common in this type of negotiation. But I can guarantee that the Commission fulfilled its role fully and on time.”
Gill stated that the decision to divide the agreement, if it occurred, would also be up to the Commission and that this is an old practice. “The member countries decided that this type of negotiation would be done collectively through the Commission. There is nothing new here.”
Von der Leyen also dedicated part of her speech to European farmers, stating that “their way of life will be respected”. “We are working on it”, he added, implying that safeguards for activity in Europe could be increased. The sector is already the one that consumes most of the continent’s subsidies.
President of Italy’s main rural union, Massimiliano Giansanti stated that the Commission “sends a very worrying message to millions of farmers and ranchers across Europe”. “For years, we have expressed our categorical opposition to this outdated and problematic trade agreement, which will only worsen the economic pressure endured by those constantly dealing with high input prices and difficult weather conditions.”
French farmers, who had already scheduled a new round of protests for Monday (9), declared that the acts will become “tougher”. Demonstrations should also take place in other countries. The movement is also echoed by rising right-wing and extreme-right parties on the continent, which use environmental regulations as an electoral platform. They would be excessive, generally punishing those with fewer resources, such as farmers.
The agricultural issue would also be the reason for Italy to signal that it can form dissent with France. The Prime Minister, Giorgia Meloni, however, faces a moment of economic crisis in her country, which will not allow her to ignore arguments such as billions more in investments.
The continent’s largest exporter, Germany celebrates the agreement and is Von der Leyen’s great ally in the dispute. The “largest free trade zone in the world”, as the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung newspaper described it in its title, means more jobs. Trade with Mercosur already supports 855 thousand jobs in Europe.
According to the federation of German industries, the treaty has the potential to make the country’s GDP grow by 0.15%, something like 6 billion euros, a considerable gain for an economy that has been stagnant for two years, in a trade dispute with China and under the threat of protectionism from the second Donald Trump administration.
The agreement also worries environmentalists. After the European Union postponed its anti-deforestation law for a year, the treaty with Mercosur countries and their intensive agriculture would be a new indication that the bloc would be exchanging its global leadership in the sector for commercial gains.
