The situation in remains sufficiently explosive, but the fuse of the expansion of the war seems to be shifting to the northeast, bringing to the fore again , 13 years after its first outbreak that tore the country apart, leading to the death and displacement of millions of people. The already thin rope, on which the long-suffering region has been trying to balance for decades, a field of struggle for West and East, a bone of contention for , , and , in which they all want to have a say and power, is stretched even more dangerously.
Rebels from the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham are on the outskirts of Homs, the third largest city in Syria and just 180 kilometers from Damascus. Overnight Russian airstrikes on the Rastan Bridge, towards Homs, have not stopped and are continuing their advance after the ceremonial capture of Hama.
Earlier, it became known that Syrian rebels captured the city of Daraa, in the south of the country, after reaching an agreement with the army for its withdrawal, according to sources cited by the Reuters agency.
The latest developments that make the Syrian capital the final target of the rebels have caused worldwide concern, having alerted all the players in this complex conflict. Indicators of the criticality of the situation are that in the last few hours, Russia has called on its citizens to leave Syria, while Jordan has closed its borders with the country, and Israel has announced that it is strengthening its air and ground forces in the Golan Heights and that the armed forces are prepared for all scenarios.
And while Hezbollah announces that it is reinforcing the Syrian army with some elite forces and Iranian officials say that Tehran is preparing to send missiles, drones and, if necessary, soldiers to Syria, one of the rebel leaders is calling on the commanders of the Syrian army to defect .
For its part, Russia, which appears to be in control of the Ukrainian front at this particular moment, has been surprised by the attack of the jihadists who are advancing undefeated and with impressive speed towards Damascus, occupying cities of strategic importance and announcing that the goal is the overthrow of his regime Bashar al-Assad, a scenario that Moscow cannot return to, as this would lead to the loss of its two military bases in country.
What analysts see
But with the Islamist rebels on the outskirts of Homs, the third largest city in Syria and only 180 kilometers from Damascus, and overnight Russian airstrikes on the Rastan Bridge, towards Homs, failed to halt their march, after the festive takeover of Hama, analysts estimate that the means available to the Kremlin are limited, as are his options to support his ally, in the middle of the war in Ukraine.
The role played by the Russians, which was key during the early years of the civil war, is now weakened while Iran, which is also a de facto supporter of the Syrian leader, is facing difficulties.
Since 1971, Moscow has had a naval base in Syria, in the Mediterranean city of Tartus. These facilities are critical for refueling and repairing Russian warships. In 2015, the Russians added another air base in Khmeimim, a little further north.
According to Pierre Razou, director of the Mediterranean Foundation for Strategic Studies (FMES), scattered from the coast to the border with Turkey, Russian forces in Syria do not allow them to fight on equal terms with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, as they would have to withdraw from certain key positions, which they do not want to leave to the Americans, the Iranians or the Turks, who also have forces in the region.
“The Russians are starting to fear for their bases, which they absolutely want to keep,” said David Rigulet-Rose of the Institute for International and Strategic Affairs (IRIS).
Because of the war in Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin cannot provide either troops or equipment to Assad. “The flaws in Moscow’s strategy have been exposed,” commented analyst Nicole Grazzewski.
Mercenaries remain. The Africa Corps, which brings together the private Russian military companies on the African continent, after the dissolution of Wagner, could be mobilized. Liam Carr of the American institute AEI reported, citing several sources, that until recently there were 1,800 Russian mercenaries in Libya. Those men are in the best position to go quickly to Syria without having to pull resources from Ukraine or the Sahel, he said, noting that they have artillery and TA-72 tanks at their disposal.
The paper of diplomacy
But the Kremlin is simultaneously playing the diplomacy card. , Recep Tayyip , who . They agreed to continue their contacts for the de-escalation of the crisis and stressed that it is of “critical importance” that Russia’s “close coordination” with Turkey and Iran “for the normalization of the situation in Syria.”
So tomorrow in Doha the foreign ministers of Turkey, Russia and Iran are meeting in search of de-escalation initiatives. However, we must bear in mind that we are talking about three powers with different interests and alliances in Syria.
Pierre Razou said that “in the short term Russian options are limited” and that is why the Kremlin is seeking to buy time.
For David Rigulet-Rose, Erdogan, officially, does not wish for the fall of Assad. “The question is whether it can ‘hold its dogs,'” he summed up, referring to Ankara’s allies involved in the war in Syria.
Some analysts assert that Moscow is pushing for a Syria-Turkey summit. “Russia is not ready to lose. Assad can be defeated, but not Russia. For the Russians, it would probably be easier for anyone to make a deal with Turkey,” Russian political analyst Konstantin Kalachev told AFP.
