Aleppo has fallen, now Hama has fallen and Homs could be the next stronghold. Then the only thing missing is the capital, Damascus. The eyes of the world are all on Syria
There is a pincer behind Bashar al-Assad. Practically the only president that Syria has known this century, and who followed his father in office, the strongman supported by Russia and Iran seems to have his days in power numbered. Or perhaps we should say hours.
The lightning operation launched at the end of last week saw Aleppo fall into the hands of the rebels, who took advantage of a cocktail of events – diversion of Russian attention and weakening of Hezbollah and Iran – to launch a decisive offensive against the regime.
From the small territory of Idlib they were multiplying like mushrooms. In just seven days they conquered Aleppo and Hama, two of Syria’s largest cities, and are now surrounding Homs, the last bastion before the increasingly isolated capital, Damascus.
“Our forces liberated the last village on the outskirts of the city of Homs and are now within its walls,” said the group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), formed after a split from Al-Qaeda, and which is the main of the many rebel forces that came together, in one way or another, to make the revolution.
The attack also launches from the south. It’s just that the apparent weakness of pro-government forces has urged other rebels to join the cause. That is why Daraa, south of Damascus, is also now in the hands of those who oppose a regime that has dominated Syria for more than 50 years. To the east, Deir el-Zor fell to Kurdish forces supported by the United States.
It’s that pincer, with one tong coming from above, from Aleppo, and another coming from below, from Daraa. From this last city, as the rebels assured, it will be possible to guarantee safe passage towards the capital.
A pincer that Russia seems to be ignoring, despite the brutal interests it has in the territory, which gives it a unique opportunity to have access to the Mediterranean Sea, namely in the port of Tartus, where it has a Navy – the conquest of Homs by the rebels leaves the Syrian regime is landlocked, meaning Russian positions will be isolated. It is precisely there that the Institute for the Study of War, a think tank focused on conflicts, has noticed movements in recent days. Is Russia abandoning Bashar al-Assad? The answer is unclear, but indications from the Kremlin seem to suggest something different is happening, as the embassy in Damascus has asked all Russians to leave the country immediately.
Tiago André Lopes warns that mistakes are being repeated – “we are tragically seeing a repetition of mistakes” in what was done in Afghanistan or Iran. “We are inviting a bunch of groups that do not serve the West. If the idea is to inflict a proxy defeat on Moscow or Iran, we will inflict a defeat on our interests.”
Areas of Syrian control on December 6
Source: Institute for the Study of War with the AEI Critical Threats Project
Graphic: Lou Robinson, CNN
The specialist in Middle East affairs sees the fall of Bashar Al-Assad as highly likely, seeing “clear signs” of the perception of this same fall in different regional actors.
From a military perspective, Major General Agostinho Costa has no doubts: with the conquest of Homs, “the touchstone of the cathedral”, “Damascus is following”, as it is under siege on all fronts.
In a series of interviews with foreign media outlets (one of which was with CNN), the leader of HTS, Abu Mohammed Al-Golani, assured that “the operation broke the enemy”, reiterating that the final destination is indeed Damascus.
“Our goal is to free Syria from this oppressive regime,” he added.
Meanwhile, everyone watches intently. Türkiye and the United States, interested in the fall of the regime, have been exchanging perspectives. From Istanbul, Bashar Al-Assad is asked to open negotiations with the opposition.
On the other side, little is known about Russian intentions, but Iran has assured that it intends to support the regime. Iraq, once a regional power that was reduced to almost nothing military after the entry of the United States, sought to avoid intentions of getting involved, even though it made it very clear that it is Bashar Al-Assad that it owes its loyalty to.
It’s just that part of fear is uncertainty. If a dictator like Bashar Al-Assad falls it could be good, this fall happening for Sunni groups who want to establish an Islamic republic could radicalize the country. Let us remember: Syria can also mean Levant. ISIS/ISIL mean the same thing (Islamic State of Iraq and Syria/Levant).
Without prejudice to advances and setbacks, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights has already confirmed that 370,000 people were displaced in the last week.
In between, there is still a lot of misinformation and doubt. The Wall Street Journal wrote that Egypt and Jordan, countries in the Arab world that maintain a neutral stance, advised the Syrian president to leave the country and form a new government in exile. The Jordanian embassy in Washington DC has already criticized this news, immediately denying it.
In between, two versions: Bashar al-Assad and his family actually left the country, with the president finding refuge in Iran. Only part of this information will be true, at least according to the Syrian army, which is still loyal to the president. The military says that the strongman remains in Damascus, but everything points to his family having gone abroad, more specifically to Russia.
