Stakeholders now need to consider what could potentially threaten President Bashar al-Assad’s control over the country.
They made a lightning advance into the north of the country, taking two major cities: Aleppo, the second largest city, and Hama, a strategically important city that lies on a vital supply route.
The rebels are saying they will advance further south to Homs, just over 100 miles from the Syrian capital, Damascus.
“When we talk about objectives, the objective of the revolution remains the overthrow of this regime. It is our right to use all available means to achieve this goal,” Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, the former al Qaeda fighter who now leads the rebellion, told CNN in an interview on Thursday (5).
Although Assad has many enemies in the region and beyond, his fall would not be welcomed by everyone.
Western and Arab states, as well as Israel, would like to see Iran’s influence in Syria reduced, but none want a radical Islamic regime to replace Assad.
For Russia, the fall of Syria could mean losing its closest Middle Eastern ally and undermining its ability to project power while fighting a war in Ukraine. For Iran, it can destroy its so-called Axis of Resistance, made up of allied states and militias.
How could events in Syria impact the Middle East?
Arab states
The rebel advances in Syria mark the first real test of the powerful Arab states’ commitment to reconciling with Assad.
At the height of the Syrian civil war, Sunni Arab states, including regional powers Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, severed ties with the Iran-allied Assad regime, moved to isolate it and supported opposition groups trying to overthrow it. it, seeing it as an opportunity to contain Tehran’s regional influence.
But Assad, aided by Russia, Iran and Lebanon’s Hezbollah, survived and recovered territory lost to the rebels. Under heavy US sanctions, Syria has turned into what some experts have called a “narcostate,” fueling a drug crisis in neighboring countries.
Syria’s new reality has led Arab nations to extend a hand to the Assad regime, and in recent years, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have led efforts for its regional and international rehabilitation. In 2023, the Syrian regime was readmitted to the Arab League.
More than a decade after supporting the Syrian opposition, Gulf Arab states, including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, now side with Assad as he once again faces a rebellion.
“In 2011, a very large number of countries quickly came to the conclusion that they would be better off if Assad fell and wanted to get rid of him, but the Saudis, Emiratis and others in the region now see this as a challenging and destabilizing situation for them if Assad falls. at this point,” said Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Washington, D.C.-based Quincy Institute.
At their annual Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) summit last weekend, Gulf Arab leaders called for the preservation of Syria’s territorial integrity, declared respect for its sovereignty and rejected regional interference in its internal affairs.
In contrast, the statement following the 2011 GCC summit called on Assad to “immediately stop the killing machine, end the bloodshed and release the detainees.”
“We can see that many of these countries would like to take advantage of the situation to improve their own position within Syria, particularly with Iran, but this requires that Assad be weakened but remain – a very different position than they had before, when they were throwing everything at him to get rid of him once and for all,” said Parsi.
Iran
Iran has used Syria to expand its regional influence through proxy groups stationed in the country. The Islamic Republic, along with its most formidable proxy, Hezbollah, has proven instrumental in keeping Assad in power, helping Syrian government forces regain lost territory, while sending its own Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commanders to advise Assad’s military.
After the Palestinian militant group Hamas launched its attack on Israel in October last year, Hezbollah began exchanging fire with Israel, provoking an Israeli retaliation that saw the group’s top brass assassinated and significantly weakened its capabilities.
As a result, Hezbollah withdrew its forces from Syria to focus on its war with Israel, leaving Assad exposed, experts said.
In Syria, Israel has consistently targeted Iranian personnel and supply routes used to transfer weapons to its proxies. The fall of Aleppo and potentially other cities bordering Lebanon could further disrupt these routes, putting Iran in a difficult position.
Last week, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told Qatari news channel Al Araby Al Jadeed that Tehran would consider sending troops to Syria if requested by the Assad regime.
However, the escalation of the war in Syria could undermine Iran’s efforts to pursue diplomacy with the West and Arab states.
Losing Syria would be “a huge blow” to Iran, Parsi said. “The investment that the Iranians have made in Syria is very significant, it is an important land bridge to Lebanon, but also the alliance that the Iranians have with the Assad regime has lasted throughout the history of the Islamic Republic.”
Iran could also use its proxies in the region as leverage in potential negotiations with a new Trump administration, Parsi said.
“If Iran loses much of its position in the region, will they be too weak to negotiate? But if they fight to try to maintain as much of that position as possible, do they risk escalating the war to the point where diplomacy is no longer possible?” he said. “They are walking a delicate balance,”
Israel
Israel is also stuck in a difficult position. Assad, who views Israel as an enemy, does not pose a direct threat to the country, choosing not to respond to regular Israeli strikes in Syria over the past year. But the regime allowed its territory to be used by Iran to supply Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Hadi al-Bahra, a Syrian opposition leader who represents anti-Assad groups including the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA), said the rebels felt emboldened to make an advance on Aleppo last week after Israel weakened the Hezbollah and weakened Iran’s presence in the region.
“Due to the Lebanese war and the decrease in Hezbollah forces, the (Assad) regime has less support,” Al Bahra told Reuters in an interview, adding that Iranian-backed militias also have fewer resources, and Russia is providing less air cover for Assad’s forces due to his “Ukraine problem”.
The group leading the rebellion, however, is Hayat Tahrir Al Sham (HTS), whose leader Abu Muhammad Al Jolani is a former Al Qaeda fighter with an Islamic ideology that opposes Israel.
“Israel stands between Iran, its proxies and Syria’s Islamic rebels,” Avi Melamed, a former Israeli intelligence officer, told CNN. “Neither choice is good as far as Israel is concerned, but for now, Iran and its proxies are weakened, which is good.”
Israel must ensure that the offensive does not evolve into a “new challenge” posed by HTS and the Sunni rebels leading the offensive in Syria, he added.
Russia
Assad was on a losing streak in Syria until Russian President Vladimir Putin intervened in 2015. Without Russian air support, the 2016 recapture of Aleppo, a turning point for the embattled Syrian president, would have been difficult, if not impossible.
The Kremlin said this week it would “certainly continue to support” Assad as Russian jets step up attacks on opposition forces in northern Syria.
Nicole Grajewski, a fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace’s Nuclear Policy Program focusing on Russia, said the Assad regime was caught by surprise during the rebels’ latest offensive, and the rebels may have taken advantage of Russia’s distraction with Ukraine. to seize land in Syria.
Moscow had not committed a large number of forces to Syria and may still be able to support it, she added, but Russia’s ability to mobilize forces would be difficult given how quickly rebels are advancing through northern Syria.
Overall, the rebel advance with the help of Türkiye is a “very big threat to Russia,” Grajewski told CNN. “Russia has invested a lot of capital in Assad and the loss of Syria would be an even greater loss given its broader status as a great power and its ability to maneuver in the Middle East.”
Türkiye
Turkey has tried to distance itself from the rebels’ actions in northern Syria, but it is the main supporter of the Syrian National Army, one of the groups driving the offensive.
Ankara also represented the opposition in negotiations with Russia over several years over the past decade, which ultimately led to a ceasefire agreement in 2020 between the parties in Syria that each supports.
Despite its support for opposition forces, Turkey has not ruled out a rapprochement with Syria.
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has called a meeting with Assad, the man he once labeled a terrorist, to restore relations. Assad has refused to meet him as long as Turkey continues to occupy parts of his country.
Turkey has also sought a solution for the estimated 3.1 million Syrian refugees it hosts – more than any other country. Refugees have become a major point of contention in Türkiye, often leading to anti-Syrian riots and calls for mass deportation by opposition parties.
Until recently, the Syrian situation was seen in Turkey as “the regime is winning, the opposition is losing,” with the Iran-Russia axis defining developments on the ground, said Galip Dalay, a senior adviser at Chatham House, a think tank in London. But the recent rebel push has changed that power dynamic.
“Now it is clear that the Turks want to engage in a negotiation, but showing Assad that he is entering the negotiation from a weak point. If negotiations take place now, the only way they will lead to anything is if Assad provides real concessions, not cosmetic concessions,” Dalay told CNN.
Another objective of Türkiye is to repel Kurdish insurgent groups located along the Turkish-Syrian border and create a buffer zone.
Erdogan has long opposed Kurdish nationalism and has made clear that his ultimate goal is to eliminate the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), a far-left Kurdish political and militant group based in Turkey and Iraq that has been fighting the Turkish state for longer. three decades.
