JOSÉ HENRIQUE MARIANTE
The reopening of Notre-Dame, this weekend’s big event in Europe, was on Ursula von der Leyen’s agenda. Hours after the signing of the EU-Mercosur trade treaty, which has the host of the party as its biggest opponent, the commitment was dropped from its agenda. Von der Leyen’s absence from the cathedral, like that of Pope Francis, illustrates just the latest in a series of crises that the continent is experiencing at the end of the year.
Europe’s highest political authority has entered into a collision course with Emmanuel Macron, who governs without a prime minister and with a resigned cabinet. The agreement is of interest to the continent’s largest exporter, Germany, which also faces immense economic and political challenges. “We are in a different situation than France, but it is important to follow the path of growth. Europe is under pressure. The influence that the continent has internationally depends heavily on our economic strength”, declared Sabine Mauderer, vice-president of the Bundesbank, last week.
Europe needs to face a complex scenario, which brings together a trade dispute with China, Donald Trump’s tariff bravado, excessive regulation and technological and industrial lag. According to the OECD, the world economy shows “remarkable resilience”, with global growth forecast of 3.3% in 2025, largely due to the USA. Trump will inherit an economy in shape, with an estimated 2.4% growth in 2025. Germany (0.7%) and France (0.9%) recorded drops in their economic prospects.
While Europe’s engines stall, the rest of the continent contributes to the troubled moment. Italy is facing an economic crisis, with growth forecast reduced to 0.8% in 2025. Giorgia Meloni, the Prime Minister, faces the risk of monitoring by Brussels due to the fiscal deficit, in addition to a clash with the Judiciary over an immigration control center in Italy. Albania. In the Netherlands, the right-wing coalition almost collapsed after xenophobic statements by Geert Wilders about Moroccan immigration, ignoring the presence of a minister of Moroccan descent in the government.
To the east, the problems worsen. In addition to the invasion of Ukraine, Russia is accused of carrying out hybrid attacks in neighboring countries. In Moldova, a plebiscite on joining the European Union passed by just 11,500 votes, with accusations of vote buying. In Georgia, electoral manipulations and civil disobedience led by President Salome Zourabichvili reflect growing tensions. Russia compared the situation to the 2014 Maidan revolution, which overthrew the pro-Kremlin leader in Ukraine.
In Romania, Russian interference would have leveraged the ultra-rightist Calin Georgescu, who won the first presidential round with 22% of the votes. The election was annulled by the country’s highest court, but voting had already begun abroad for the second round. Georgescu advocated a break with Ukraine and rapprochement with Moscow, something alarming for a member country of the EU and NATO. Romania hosts a strategic missile base for European defense.
Before the annulment, the EU questioned TikTok executives about the platform’s use to disproportionately promote Georgescu, allegedly by Russian bots. NATO expressed concern, pointing to hybrid attacks as “the biggest threat” to Europe, including attacks, sabotage and destabilizing actions.
The European continent, with weakened economic and political engines, faces internal and external challenges, while instability grows on several fronts.
