From the cordon sanitaire to Marine Le Pen’s leash: how France got here

by Andrea
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From the cordon sanitaire to Marine Le Pen's leash: how France got here

There are times when the popular proverb serves for the best analysis of political reality. To explain what is happening in France, for example, we have that “of those muds, these muds.” The muds: President Emmanuel Macron, after the victory of the left in the legislative elections, chose as prime minister, however, a well-known leader of the classic right, Michel Barnier, who had placed fourth in the elections. The sludge: Michel Barnier has not achieved a majority to approve the Budget and, now, France is no longer at the starting point, but worse.

The problem, or the problems, was Macron. When Marine Le Pen’s extreme right was the leading force in the European elections, the French president overestimated her capabilities and support. As soon as the results were known, Macron decided to bring forward the legislative elections. His intention was to strengthen his mandate and demonstrate that the extreme right was still far from governing in France. Mistake. Macron not only erred in imagining an even battle between him and Le Pen, but he underestimated the possibilities of the left. The militants of the left-wing parties took to the streets to demand that their leaders present themselves together and they had no choice but to listen. The agreement caught both Macron and Le Pen by surprise, but more so for the former. The left won the elections, the Macronists came second and Le Pen’s National Rally third.

The move did not go as expected for Macron. Not only did she not win the election, but neither did Le Pen. The left won them, something that, no matter how much he justified the electoral call in fear of the extreme right, hurt him much more. With a National Assembly without clear majorities, Macron had two options. Comply with an unwritten rule according to which the prime minister must belong to the winning candidacy, or rely on Marine Le Pen. And in a bizarre twist, the French president opted for the latter, negotiating with the extreme right for a candidate they could support. Attention to the nonsense: he brought forward the elections to stop Le Pen and ended up subjecting the new Government to Le Pen’s wishes. Great strategist.

If Macron wanted to prevent the far-right from coming to power in France, he ended up giving them unprecedented dominance. Le Pen was not going to govern, but the future of the new prime minister was in her hands. Any move Barnier wanted to make would have to have his approval. He went from the cordon sanitaire to the leash. And Le Pen took the reins from day one. Not Barnier anymore, it’s just that Macron didn’t have anything to do with it either. Those from the National Group were clear that they would not enter the Government. Better not get wet. Meanwhile, everything depended on them.

And until today. Le Pen has done her calculations and has understood that, although at first it seemed otherwise, it is good for her to overthrow Barnier’s Government to defeat Macron in the future. Although the French president ends his term in 2027 and has already announced that he does not plan to resign, Le Pen is confident that he will not last too long. The leader of the National Group is also awaiting the resolution of a judicial process for alleged embezzlement of funds from the European Parliament that could end with a ban from holding public office for five years. Everything adds up. I had to do something to divert the focus.

For now, Michel Barnier, fourth in the last legislative elections, has become the most short-lived prime minister in the history of the French Fifth Republic. All this by order and desire of Macron to stop the left.

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