The defense of democracy against its rise in should be done with clear positions of the parties of the center for the stability and security of the economy, Dr. Cornelia Voll, president of the Hertie School at the Berlin University of Government, said in an interview with Vima.
Ahead of snap elections expected to be held in the country in February, Dr Voll pointed out that the challenge for centrist parties is to respond to voters’ concerns without falling into the trap of a far-right agenda that proposes simplistic solutions such as “Germany first”.
Do you expect further rise of the far right in the upcoming German elections? Will the economy or the defense of the Republic be at the center of the elections? Is there a temptation in the Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) for any form of cooperation with the AfD?
Recent polls put the far-right AfD at around 18%, an 8% increase from the previous election. It could emerge as the second largest party in Parliament. The strong push of the far right has been confirmed in the recent state elections, not only in East Germany, but also in the states of Bavaria and Hesse.
So it seems that the formation of the future German government will be a complex process. Since most parties in the Center refuse to form a coalition with the far right, they may be forced to join yet another three-party coalition. We already know how difficult and unstable these coalitions can be.
AfD is active on two issues: economic nationalism and a tough stance on immigration. On an economic level, they take advantage of dissatisfaction with deindustrialization, the high cost of energy or the limitations of an ecological transition and propose simplistic solutions such as “Germany first”.
They cultivate fears about access to the labor market, road safety or changes in society and use immigration as a scapegoat.
The challenge for the election campaign of centrist parties is to respond to the concerns that voters find important, without falling into the trap of a far-right agenda. We have seen in recent months that politicians of the center who adopted populist rhetoric, for example pointing the finger at foreigners, did not increase their votes but the votes of the far right.
If they want to defend their electoral base, centrist parties need to have clear messages on economic and industrial strategy, accessibility to labor markets and the future of work, and living standards in both cities and the countryside. That is to clearly define the path to a stable and secure economy. To answer your question directly: in order to defend democracy, elections must focus on the economy.
What is the future of German-Russian relations? How big is the impact of the Ukraine war on the German economy, is there a way to restore confidence?
Relations between Germany and Russia have always been characterized by great mistrust. Germany has been among the countries most disapproving of Russian leadership for decades. After all, East Germany was under communist control during the Soviet empire. Nevertheless, successive German governments have in recent decades attempted a peaceful approach by strengthening economic relations, an approach called “Wandel durch Handel” i.e. change through trade.
This was helped by German industry eager to seize opportunities in the East and gain access to cheap energy, and this perhaps explains why this approach was not challenged when Russia invaded Georgia in 2008 or when it annexed Crimea in 2014. But it collapsed when Russia launched full-frontal invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, as German pointed out chancellor Olaf Solz in his Zeitenwende speech. This rift will continue beyond the war in Ukraine.
After the Russian invasion of Ukraine, German politicians speak more freely about the dire state of German-Russian relations. We are no longer at the level of broken trust. German Foreign Minister Analena Burbock made it clear that Germany is facing a hybrid war waged by Russia. Germany has faced cyberattacks and disinformation campaigns aimed at destabilizing its society and elections for over a decade.
We see a range of tactics that include infrastructure sabotage, financial pressure, extortion, the use of proxies and the weaponization of migration flows. Indeed, the rise of far-right parties in Western democracies is fueled by disinformation campaigns as well as Russia’s manipulation of economic and security concerns. In particular, the media have exposed the direct financial ties of far-right and far-left German politicians to Russian sources.
All centrist parties agree that Germany must respond to these attacks, invest in its defense capabilities and make its economy more self-reliant, its digital and technological infrastructure more secure and its society more resilient. The economy can no longer be considered a space independent of the security apparatus and this means that we will pay the necessary price of adaptation.
Germany and France were once described as the steam engine of Europe. Can we talk about a steam engine now? Where is Europe’s train headed?
To use your metaphor, the locomotive lost its German wheels on November 6 when the governing coalition collapsed and its French wheels a month later when the French government was voted out. Even before these paradoxical parallel developments, both countries were tested by weak governments that had little room for maneuver to overcome internal problems and prepare the future of Europe. Those seeking leadership will not be comforted by recent political developments in France and Germany.
However, the EU has never been more necessary. Europe faces an increasingly dangerous and volatile world, with growing security concerns on its eastern borders and in the Middle East, doubts about whether it can rely on NATO, and an economy that is too fragmented to follow both the U.S. as well as China.
In the past, agreement on European projects has often been the product of crises and ruptures.
The Single European Act was a direct result of the fact that European growth lagged behind most developed economies in the 1980s, the euro agreement was linked to German unification, the 2004 enlargement with the restructuring of Europe after the fall of the Wall, and more recently joint public debt in response to the pandemic.
I am convinced that we will see significant advances in European defense or industrial strategy, and I believe that Germany and France will remain important partners at the negotiating table. Leadership, however, may come from elsewhere. In a union of 27, this is fitting and reassuring.
