The red, white, green and black flag of the Free Syrian Army flew over Damascus on Sunday, with thousands of residents streaming through the main square in jubilation after President Bashar al-Assad stepped down from power.
Over the past 11 days, a rebel alliance has taken over Syria in the boldest challenge to the Assad regime in years – following decades of a brutal reign by the Assad dynasty marked by fighting, bloodshed and political repression.
“This is an important moment, not just for the Syrian people, but for the people of the Middle East, Lebanese, Palestinian, Syrian or otherwise,” Firas Maksad, senior fellow at the Washington-based Middle East Institute, told CNN. Sunday.
“This is a regime that, for more than 50 years, under the slogan of freedom, unity and socialism, oppressed, tortured and disappeared many millions of people in Syria.”
As the anti-regime coalition begins to dismantle Assad’s armed forces and present its vision for a post-Assad Syria, experts are wondering whether the next phase will be a new dawn for a people strangled by a brutal autocracy – or whether sectarianism will bring a different kind of authoritarian regime.
Transition of power “extremely difficult
The Syrian armed opposition plans to form a government defined by institutions and a “council chosen by the people,” Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, the militant figure leading the latest rebel push, told CNN. He heads the coalition’s dominant group, Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS), a former al Qaeda affiliate.
Jolani declared victory for “the entire Islamic nation” on Sunday, in his first public comments since the rebel-led coup, which he said “marks a new chapter in the region’s history.”
“Syria is being purified by the grace of Almighty God and through the efforts of the heroic Mujahideen,” Jolani told a crowd at the majestic Umayyad Mosque in Damascus. He denounced “Iranian ambitions” in Syria, where Tehran and its proxy Hezbollah are the main supporters of the Assad government.
“My heart has longed for this moment,” Jolani added. “There is not a single house in Syria that has not been affected by the war.”
Before armed fighters launched a stunning offensive last month, Assad’s rule had divided Syrian territory between regime and rebel forces – some of whom are backed by international powers including the US and Turkey.
What emerged on November 27 was the “Military Operations Command”, a spectrum of militias united by a common cause – to liberate government-controlled areas and depose the president. Jolani told CNN that if opposition forces manage to overthrow Assad, they will form “a state of governance, institutions, etc.”
Shortly after the fall of Damascus to southern rebels, Syrian Prime Minister Mohammad Ghazi Al-Jalali pledged to cooperate with the rebels and support “a smooth and systematic transition of government functions” and to preserve “the State facilities”, in a recorded message.
Jolani echoed a similar memo, stating that all public institutions would remain under the prime minister’s jurisdiction “until officially handed over.” Syrian rebels also claimed that senior regime officials were preparing to defect to them in Damascus.
But delegating a new system of government will be “extremely difficult” to a “diverse coalition” of armed combatants, according to Jerome Drevon, a senior analyst at the Brussels-based think tank International Crisis Group.
“Some groups are more structured, more organized, including (HTS) and some of its allies,” he told CNN on Sunday, while others are ‘more local entities.’
Human rights concerns
As the rebels advanced, so did Jolani’s charm offensive. The militant leader, who emerged as a young al-Qaeda fighter against the US in Iraq, has sought to lessen the shadow of his extremist roots.
The United States designated HTS as a Foreign Terrorist Organization in 2018 and placed a $10 million reward on Jolani.
Millions of Syrians, including those from minority Christian and other religious communities, are haunted by a legacy of persecution suffered at the hands of extremist groups such as al-Qaeda and ISIS. Human rights defenders have accused HTS and other anti-regime groups of repressing residents in areas under their control – including northwest Idlib, western Homs and Aleppo governorates – and of torturing and mistreating dissidents.
Jolani told CNN that prison abuses “were not committed under our orders or directives” and that HTS had already penalized the perpetrators.
“Anti-government armed groups have pledged restraint and respect for humanitarian standards, but ultimately they will be judged by their conduct, not their words,” said Adam Coogle, deputy Middle East director at Human Rights Watch, in a statement of December 4th.
In a speech on state television on Sunday, a Syrian rebel commander insisted that “all sects” would be protected, adding: “Syria is for everyone, without exception…Syria is for the Sunnis, the Druze, the Alawites.” .
Maksad, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, warned that the fall of the Assad regime could be a “time of potential danger” for the country’s minority communities, including religious groups such as the Alawites, Ismailis, Druze and Christians.
“There are concerns about the more Islamic jihadist elements of this rebel force,” he said, particularly with regard to Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS), the main group leading the country’s armed opposition, which has been designated a terrorist group by the US and by many other countries,” said Maksad.
‘Heroic lions who made us proud’
But on the streets of Syria, these concerns were eclipsed by scenes of mass excitement and celebration. Thousands of people gathered at the foot of Damascus’ main square, where rebels ransacked Assad’s residence.
“After the fear he (Assad) and his father made us live in for many years, and the panic and state of terror I lived in, I can’t believe it,” Omar Daher, a 29-year-old lawyer, told the Associated Press .
Another Damascus resident, Mohammed Amer Al-Oulabi, 44, said: “From Idlib to Damascus, it only took (opposition forces) a few days, thank God. May God bless you, the heroic lions who have made us proud.”
And further afield, Syrian refugees forced to flee the war shared their hopes of returning to a peaceful country.
“We thank our people in Syria and free countries for saving us from injustice,” Wissam Ahmed, a Syrian displaced in Lebanon, told Reuters on Sunday. “We are going to Syria, God willing, to rebuild our future and our homes. The feeling is really great, we can’t describe it better.”
