He is falling apart at a speed that just two weeks ago would have been considered political fiction. The rebels took the country’s third city late on Saturday, encountering hardly any resistance, with the army of the president, Bashar El Assad, and dozens of Hezbollah militiamen fleeing due to the inability to contain the unstoppable advance. They thus cut off communication between Damascus and the Alawite coastal area, where the Assads come from and their ally Russia has a sea base and another air base. Local insurgents have also taken over the entire southwest in just 24 hours, reaching just 30 kilometers from Damascus. Interior Minister Mohammed al-Rahmun has noted that a “very solid security and military cordon” protects the capital, but the general impression is that the regime is living its last days. Both the countries that came to his aid, such as Iran and Russia, and those that have supported the rebels, such as Qatar and Turkey, have united in an unusual way to demand that Assad in a joint statement reach a political agreement to put end to the war.
The rebels have also taken the city of Daraa, particularly symbolic for being the cradle in 2011 of the pro-democratic protests, within the framework of the Arab Spring, whose repression by Assad unleashed the civil war that has taken an unusual turn these days. It is a sign that the revolt is no longer limited to the advance at cruising speed from the northwest (Idlib) of the rebel forces led by the fundamentalist Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS), but is taking hold in other areas, they have eaten ground by regime and taken Deir al Zor, where the Islamic State terrorist group (ISIS in its old English acronym) also maintains a growing presence.
On social networks you can see images of burned and shot statues, or torn down posters, of the El Assads, the father and son who have consecutively led Syria in the last half century. A video recorded in one of the capital’s suburbs shows a young man demolishing a bust of the father of the current leader, Hafez el Assad, who ruled the country with an iron fist between 1971 and 2000. It was in Yermana, a majority suburb Druze technically in the hands of the regime, 10 kilometers from Damascus.
The official Syrian agency, SANA, denied this Saturday the reports that the president had fled, pointing out that he is still in Damascus, working. Meanwhile, and its allies (Russia, Iran and the Lebanese militia Hezbollah) are increasingly putting themselves in profile, aware of the difficulty of reversing the rebel advance, unlike 2015, when the entry of Moscow and its aviation on the scene saved Assad, cornered by rebel militias and ISIS.
Today, the context of the Middle East and the outcome of the fighting is different, and the Foreign Ministers of Iran and Russia, Abbas Araqchi and Sergei Lavrov, respectively, have sent very similar messages, considering “the most important thing” that the Government and the “legitimate opposition groups” begin a political dialogue as soon as possible. At the forefront of this opposition is the Syrian Interim Government, the political umbrella of the Syrian National Army (ENS), the other armed force that, under the shadow of Turkey, has participated in the offensive that began on November 27.
In further evidence of the decomposition of the regime’s defenses, some 2,000 soldiers have crossed the border into Iraq to seek refuge, the mayor of the border town of Al Qaim, Turki al Mahlawi, told Reuters. Some are injured and receiving medical attention.
Donald Trump, the president-elect of the United States who will take office in January, has made it clear that he has no say in what is happening in Syria, where he maintains a few troops (less than a thousand) in defense of his Kurdish allies. “Syria is a disaster, but it is not our friend, and the United States should have nothing to do with it. This is not our fight. Let it develop. “Let’s not get involved!” he wrote on his social network, Truth. “Syrian opposition fighters, in an unprecedented move, have completely taken numerous cities, in a highly coordinated offensive, and are now on the outskirts of Damascus, obviously preparing to make a very big move toward the elimination of Assad. ”, he added.
The offensive on Damascus underpins a lightning operation launched 11 days ago by anti-government forces from the north (ENS) and southwest (HTS) of Aleppo, the second largest city and one of the symbols of rebel rule a decade ago. The armed groups have advanced without practically resistance to penetrate the center of the northern city on November 29 until reaching its citadel, while other columns were heading south on their way to Hama and Homs to cut communications with the capital. In a handful of battles, the onslaught of these groups has managed to control a portion of the territory that they could only access with the 2011 revolts after months of civil war.
The situation “changes minute by minute,” as the United Nations special envoy for Syria noted this Saturday. Geir O. Pedersen has called for “an urgent and serious process, fundamentally different from what has been carried out until now”, because “the need for an orderly political transition has never been more urgent, starting with the urgent formulation of agreements of inclusive and credible transition.” “It must be the beginning of a process that leads to the realization of the legitimate aspirations of the Syrian people and the restoration of the sovereignty, independence, unity and territorial integrity of Syria,” he added.
He said this in Doha, where the main support for the Syrian Government (Tehran and Moscow) and the rebels (Ankara) have met in the so-called Astana Format, created in 2017 to try to end the war. The statement from the foreign ministers does not point to specific agreements. It is limited to an abstract call for “respect for the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Syria”, for the “immediate cessation of war actions and the beginning of a dialogue between the Government and the legal opposition forces”, in the words of the Russian representative. , Sergei Lavrov.
