The performance of (Republicans) in the municipal elections in São Paulo fueled a doubt on which the organization of the state depends: will the governor be a candidate for re-election or the Presidency of the Republic?
A good part of Tarcísio’s surroundings chooses, with victory considered by them to be certain. Especially because imagining the state dispute without him means having to admit that there is no natural successor.
More than that, the center-right field suffers from a shortage of competitive names — a problem that used to affect the left when it came to the election for the Palácio dos Bandeirantes.
Tarcísio’s decision takes into account factors such as , the endorsement of the ineligible party () and the popularity of (), who should seek re-election. Behind the scenes, the governor assesses that the progress of the economy could benefit the PT member.
For now, say the governor’s allies, who would put himself too soon on a collision course with Bolsonaro. The former president has already said, with Tarcísio at his side, .
On the other hand, the under suspicion increased the pressure for Tarcísio to run for President, as the chance of the former president reversing his ineligibility became more distant while the .
Loyal to Bolsonaro, even though he is painted as a moderate, saying that the “narrative” against the former president “lacks evidence”. Both the governor and the former president’s children can be chosen by Bolsonaro to represent him at the polls.
Another dilemma is the governor’s affiliation. Invited, especially if he is to run for Planalto, Tarcísio has preferred to remain with the Republicans, where he enjoys greater independence in relation to Bolsonarism.
If Tarcísio decides to seek reelection, as he has signaled, the game will become more defined. The governor has good ratings and would be easily re-elected, according to the projection of parties from the center to the right.
In this scenario, the focus shifts to another majority election, that of the Senate, which will have two vacancies in 2026. It is expected that one of the names will be chosen by Bolsonaro, in this case, his own son, the deputy (PL-SP), and the other by Tarcísio, which would be open.
There are those who say that the ticket, with vice-president and candidates for the Senate, should be composed, in addition to the Tarcísio Republicans, by , PL and MDB, .
president of the PSD and Government Secretary of Tarcísio, told people close to him that he would like to be the governor’s deputy, something he denies, but which would pave the way for him to command the state in the future.
This composition, however, is discarded by Bolsonaro supporters, given the disagreement between Bolsonaro and Kassab, and by the PL, which claims vice. The current vice-governor, Felicio Ramuth, is from the PSD. As shown by Sheetthat of PL, PP and União Brasil with Kassab and Tarcísio.
In terms of the situation, in addition to Kassab and Eduardo, the Secretary of Security, (PL), the president of the Legislative Assembly, André do Prado (PL), and, with less excitement, the mayors Duarte Nogueira (Ribeirão Preto-PSDB), Paulo Serra (Santo André-PSDB) and Luiz Fernando Machado (Jundiaí-PL).
Tarnished, Derrite was maintained by Tarcísio, but is seen as more suitable for the Legislature.
Also in the game is the former governor (no party), who lost to Tarcísio in 2022, but now remains close to the governor and served in the 2024 election as coordinator of the re-elected mayor’s (MDB) government program.
Questioned by the report, .
In the MDB, names mentioned for the majority ticket are municipal secretary Edson Aparecido and the president of the party, Baleia Rossi.
The senators who finish their term next year, Mara Gabrilli (PSD) and Giordano (MDB), are likely to have difficulty in making re-election possible within their parties. The after declaring support for (PSOL) against Nunes. And Mara will only have space on the ticket if Kassab himself is left out.
The PSDB states that the discussion about 2026 will only begin next year. Just like the Republicans, MDB and PP, Kassab’s party faces the complexity of promising loyalty to Tarcísio at the same time.
The former minister (Novo) runs outside and tries to inaugurate a dissent on the Bolsonarist right. He has already informed Bolsonaro that he will be a candidate for the Senate or the government, if Tarcísio does not run for re-election, and has faced criticism from the former president, for now without responding.
The left must also face difficulties in unifying. PT, and PSOL agree that the ideal would be to reach an understanding and avoid splits, but they have their own names to present.
The field comes from the wear and tear of Boulos’ defeat in the capital, and the PT only has three city halls in the state, which demonstrates the lack of electoral viability. Still, PT members consider it important to head the ticket.
Ministers Alexandre Padilha, Luiz Marinho and Paulo Teixeira are remembered for the government or Senate. In PSOL, Boulos would be a name for the Senate, while PSB has former governors and.
Alckmin’s allies claim that the vice-president would be a strong name for the Senate and that he has no desire to run again for Bandeirantes, but rather to repeat the ticket with Lula.
Márcio França, in turn, supported Haddad and lost his seat in the Senate. Now, the Executive is targeting it, which will require negotiation with the PT.
X-ray | São Paulo
- Estimated population (2024): 45.973.194
- Voters (2024): 34.403.609
- Territorial area: 248,2 mil km²
- PIB per capita (2022): R$ 70.470,53
- State budget (2024): R$328 billion
- State budget for investments (2024): R$20.8 billion
Governor:
- Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans)
Senators:
- Marcos Pontes (PL) – 2023-2031
- Giordano (MDB) – 2019-2027
- Mara Gabrilli (PSD) – 2019-2027
Number of city halls by elected parties in 2024
- PSD: 206
- PL: 109
- Republicans: 83
- MDB: 69
- PP: 48
Voting by party for mayor in 2024 (1st round)
- PL: 3.36 million
- MDB: 3.04 million
- PSD: 3.02 million
- Republicans: 2.26 million
- PSOL: 1.88 million
Sources: IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics), TSE (Superior Electoral Court) and Government of São Paulo
