The chaos on the political scene after the collapse of his government combined with German introversion in the run-up to February’s federal elections have raised questions about the evolution of the European venture, while some even see a reversal of the balance of power within the Old Continent.
“Since the election of Donald Trump, major European governments show tendencies of nervous paralysis” says a European official to “Vima”, preserving his anonymity. He added that it is absolutely necessary to restore stability in Berlin and Paris, the “steam engines”, as he said, of Europe, in order for the latter to face the new international environment.
What are Brussels afraid of?
The Europeans’ main fear is a “prolonged political crisis” in France, given the difficulty of forming a stable majority government. Some believe that regardless of the government and the prime minister, the ends of the French political spectrum – Marine Le Pen – they will “wait in the corner” and escalate the reactions as the 2027 presidential election approaches.
“A conviction of Le Pen in March in connection with the (European Parliament embezzlement) scandal she is alleged to have been involved in would disqualify her from standing as a candidate in the presidential election […] and there he will seek to sow chaos in France” adds the European official. The leader of the far-right National Rally (RN) expects the court’s decision on March 31, 2025.
However, the scenario of “civil war” within the French Far Right, with the president of the RN Jordan Bardela – who on economic issues is more liberal than Le Pen – to wait to seize the opportunity in case of conviction of Le Pen. Already recently, while Le Pen deals with her court cases, Bardela has launched a communication campaign across the country promoting his new book.
At the economic level, European Commission sources point out that Brussels will show understanding regarding the deadlock in approving the budget in France.
What did President Macron say?
The president Emmanuel Macron stated that the 2025 budget, which will be drawn up by the new government when it is formed,
However, if a solution is not found within reasonable time limits, the negative reaction of the markets worries Brussels, and especially the “spill-over” scenario in the rest of the eurozone. THE Uncle Larryan analyst at the think-tank Martens Center, which is ideologically close to the center-right European People’s Party (EPP), told “Vima” that it is obviously worrying for all Europeans when a member state goes through internal political turmoil and “even more so when it’s a big country like France”.
“The decisive factor will be how quickly President Macron can find a prime minister who can find a way to work in the currently dissolved National Assembly. This will have a direct impact on international market confidence in France, and consequently in the wider EU.” Larry pointed out.
He added, however, that if prolonged political instability leads to a deterioration in creditor confidence and raises the specter of a debt crisis, “then the EU should put on hold its ambitious plans, such as strategic autonomy, in order to focus on crisis management”.
Emerging Atlantists
The Franco-German axis has been the driving force of the European venture since its inception. However, the current lack of strong political leadership in Paris, combined with the economic weakening of Germany after Russia’s war in Ukraine, are gradually leading to a change in the balance within the EU and the question is whether the European structure can evolve independently .
Eastern European countries, known for their pro-Atlantic stance, aim to fill the power vacuum that is created, especially after the arrival of Donald Trump in the White House.
In fact, countries like Poland – which takes over the six-month rotating presidency of the EU in January – are favored by political instability in France because it implies a reduced French influence on European events.
The European Commission has already ostentatiously ignored within the week France’s strong opposition to the EU’s “Mercosur” trade agreement with Latin American countries. While Paris was paralyzed, defying the French “no”.
Also, many in Brussels believe that, given the irritation of the Republicans with the German management of Ukraine during all these years during her chancellorship Angela Merkel – and especially because of the Nord Stream II pipeline – it will be much easier for President Trump to speak in Warsaw than in Berlin about European issues.
What “strategic autonomy”?
Additionally, a weakened Macron does not have the power to back the EU’s “strategic autonomy” line, especially on defense matters. Until recently the French president blocked the possibility for non-European companies to participate in European arms tenders, insisting on the “buy European” line.
However, Eastern Europe pushed – especially Poland – and French persistence was broken. “The European defense industry does not have the production capacity to reflect Europe’s needs, so we have to open up to the US” commented a Polish diplomat.
Asked to comment on the looming new balances within the Old Continent, Theo Larry noted that “just because the EU’s traditional Franco-German engine may have some difficulties, that doesn’t mean the EU doesn’t have other poles of influence.
We have seen Eastern countries gain a stronger voice since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, and I expect that their voice will continue to grow stronger on issues beyond defense and foreign relations.” concluded.
