The Copom will meet from Tuesday (Dec 10) to discuss interest rates; the inflation estimate rose from 4.71% to 4.84%
Financial market analysts increased the estimate for the basic interest rate, the Selic, for 2024 to 12.0%, compared to the previous week’s projection of 11.75%. The projections are from the Focus Bulletin, released this Monday (November 9, 2024) by the BC (Central Bank). Here is the report (PDF – 757 kB).
The projections will put pressure on the decisions of the BC’s Copom (Monetary Policy Committee), which has a meeting scheduled for Tuesday (Dec 10) and Wednesday (Dec 11). The board is responsible for deciding the Selic rate, which is currently 11.25%.
The inflation projection was raised to 4.84%. In the previous week, the value was 4.71%. The new estimate exceeds the tolerance range stipulated by the BC by 4.5%. The inflation target for the year is 3% with a tolerance of 1.5% up or down. Analysts measure inflation using the IPCA (Broad National Consumer Price Index).
Market agents also raised the GDP (Gross Domestic Product) growth estimate to 3.39%, compared to 3.22%. This represents the 3rd consecutive week of increase.
In the foreign exchange market, analysts raised the dollar price estimate to R$5.95. The previous valuation was R$5.70.
For inflation in 2025, analysts increased the projection to 4.59%, compared to 4.40%. This represents the 8th consecutive increase in the projection. The GDP, exchange rate and Selic estimates for 2025 were raised to 2.00%, R$5.77 and 13.50%, respectively.
WHAT IS FOCUS
O It is released every Monday and summarizes since 2000 the statistical projections of economists and market operators consulted by the Central Bank. It is possible to know the institutions that do the most right .
