DI rates (Interbank Deposits) fell this Tuesday (10), with some longer contract rates falling more than 40 basis points, as the market showed greater optimism with the possibility of the government’s fiscal package being approved in the Congress later this year.
Analysts also cited position adjustments, after firm increases in recent sessions, with the market awaiting the Copom’s decision on Wednesday (11).
At the end of the afternoon, the DI rate for January 2026 was 14.375%, compared to 14.543% in the previous adjustment. The contract rate for January 2027 was 14.68%, compared to the previous adjustment of 14.984%.
Among the longer contracts, the rate for January 2031 was 13.97%, down 41 basis points compared to 14.387% of the previous adjustment, and the contract for January 2033 had a rate of 13.75%, down of 43 points compared to 14.181% the day before.
Investors reacted well to the indication by the Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad, on Monday night (9) that President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva had forwarded a solution to Congress leaders regarding the impasse in the payment of parliamentary amendments, which would unlock the processing of the measures.
Future rates rose sharply in the previous session amid fears that the vote on the package would be delayed until 2025 following the decision by Minister Flávio Dino, of the Federal Supreme Court (STF), to reject an appeal presented by the Attorney General’s Office (AGU ) to review the rules it defined to allow the amendments to be passed on.
“We don’t have very relevant news. We ended last week quite worried about the indicators, but we are now observing that the government has moved to urgently approve the fiscal package in Congress”, said Lucélia Freitas, foreign exchange specialist at Manchester Investimentos.
The news about the health status of President Lula, who underwent surgery on his skull to drain a hematoma, which will take him away from work for a few days, did not seem to dampen the mood of the markets, while members of the government sought to ensure that the situation do not delay processing the package.
On the data front, investors analyzed new data for consumer inflation in the country. The IBGE reported that the IPCA slowed to an increase of 0.39% in November, compared to 0.56% in the previous month, a result practically in line with expectations, which Freitas classified as a “relief”.
In 12 months, however, the index rose 4.87%, from 4.76% in October, moving even further away from the inflation target ceiling pursued by the Central Bank — with a center of 3% and a margin of tolerance of 1.5 percentage points up or down.
The result led operators to consolidate bets on the Copom’s acceleration of monetary tightening on Wednesday, after the markets closed.
Bets showed a 71% chance of a 1 percentage point increase in the Selic, currently at 11.25% per year, on Wednesday, against a 29% probability of an increase of 0.75 points.
Both movements would represent a new acceleration in the pace of tightening, after the Copom raised the basic interest rate by 0.5 points in November and by 0.25 points in September.
Also on investors’ radar on Wednesday will be the release of inflation data from the United States, which could influence the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision next week.
“Our market always reflects US data. The whole world looks at these indicators… When there is great uncertainty here, there is a flight (of capital) there. So we need to keep looking there and doing our homework here”, Freitas pointed out.
Treasury yields rose this Tuesday, with the ten-year Treasury yield — a global benchmark for investment decisions — rising 3 basis points to 4.226%.
