Current governor Renato Casagrande emerges as the favorite for one of the two Senate seats; In the presidential dispute, Jair Bolsonaro has an advantage over Lula among voters in Espírito Santo
The electoral race for the government of Brazil already has favorites, according to a survey carried out between December 5th and 8th, 2024 and released this Tuesday (10). The mayor of Vitória, Lorenzo Pazolini (Republicans), leads with 22.4% of voting intentions in the first stimulated scenario. In second position, there is a technical tie between former governor Paulo Hartung (17%), now without a party, vice-governor Ricardo Ferraço (13.8%), from the PSDB, and the mayor of Serra, Sérgio Vidigal (12 %), from PDT. Arnaldinho Borgo (Podemos), Evair de Melo (PP) and Helder Salomão (PT) appear with less than 10%.
In a second scenario, without the presence of Ferraço, Pazolini increases his advantage, reaching 23.6%. Paulo Hartung appears with 20.6%, followed by Sérgio Vidigal (12.8%), Da Vitória (7.8%), Helder Salomão (6.6%) and Euclério Sampaio (6.4%). Federal deputy Josias da Vitória is a member of the PP, while Sampaio, recently re-elected mayor of Cariacica, is part of the MDB. The survey interviewed 1,520 voters in 47 municipalities in Espírito Santo, with a margin of error of 2.6 percentage points and a confidence level of 95%.
Casagrande leads for the Senate
Current governor Renato Casagrande (PSB) emerges as the favorite for one of the two Senate seats, with 41.6% of voting intentions. Lorenzo Pazolini comes in second, with 20.9%, followed by Paulo Hartung (17.4%), senator Fabiano Contarato (15.7%), from the PT, and Sérgio Meneguelli (15.5%), from the Republicans. Other possible candidates, such as senator Marcos do Val (Podemos), appear with voting intentions below 10%.
Non-state presidential dispute
The survey also provided data on preferences for the presidential election. In a hypothetical scenario, Jair Bolsonaro (PL), currently ineligible, leads with 45.1% of voting intentions, followed by Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT), with 31.1%. In another scenario, without Bolsonaro, Lula leads with 32.4%, followed by Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans), with 28%, and Ciro Gomes (PDT), with 10.5%.
See the two scenarios for the dispute in the Espírito Santo government
Check out how the Senate race is going
Scenarios with and without Bolsonaro for the presidential election
Published by Felipe Dantas
