“Historic opportunity” and “moment of risk and uncertainty.” With those words the president of USA, Joe Bidento the events in Syriawhere a brilliant rebel offensive ended in 11 days, after a civil war 13 years old, with the regime of Bashar al-Assad and five decades of control of his family’s country.
These are events that apparently caught the Democrat and his government by surprise, and Biden’s words reflect the crossroads that the new situation in Syria poses for Washington. He does it immediately for him, the outgoing president, but also for the man chosen to take over and return to the White House: Donald Trump.
Although at the moment both have marked, to varying degrees, distances from a situation plagued by indefinition, doubts and volatility, that position may become unsustainable. Because Syria, where the US still maintains a deployment of 900 military personnelincluding forces in the northeast grouped with allies kurds to prevent the re-emergence Islamic Stateis the last piece to shake on the always complex board of Near East. And in this game, which is experiencing an especially intense moment due to Israel’s wars in Gaza and Lebanon, the latter now in a fragile ceasefire, other transcendental geopolitical and economic pieces move, such as Iran, Russia o China.
Catastrophic success?
On Sunday, Biden defined Assad’s fall as “a fundamental act of justice“But this overthrow also revived a scenario to which the US and its allies had long ago given a name:”catastrophic success“, the idea of the Syrian leader being replaced by groups that Washington considers terrorists.
This is precisely what has happened with the Organization for the Liberation of the Levanto HTS (the acronym for Hayat Tahrir al-Sham), and its leader, Mohamed al Jolani, who are classified as terrorists by the US, other countries and the United Nations. In the case of Al Jolaniformer combatant of Al Qaedawho fought in Iraq and spent five years in US prisons before going to Syria with the Al Nusra front, from which he split to form HTS, still no one in Washington has withdrawn the r10 million dollar reward that the Government offered for his capture.
Now within the Administration there is what Politico sources define as “a major effort to determine if, how and when HTS can be removed from the terrorist list.” It is a designation that, according to law, the Secretary of State of Biden, Antony Blinkenyou have the authority to revoke at any time. But for now we proceed with caution.
Biden himself said on Sunday that “some of the rebel groups that have toppled Assad have their own dark record of terrorism and human rights abuses“and pointed out that, although “they are now saying the right thing”, they will value “not only their words but their actions as they assume greater responsibilities”, a message that their spokesperson, Karine Jean-Pierre, repeated this Wednesday.
Washington does not want to appear to be taking the lead. Biden has sent Israel to Jake Sullivanhis national security advisor, and Blinken sent senior state officials to capitals in the region to establish talks. And before taking any steps, such as recognizing the new coalition as a legitimate government or beginning the uprising of sanctionswhich they can use as a negotiation or pressure tool, caution prevails. “History shows how quickly moments of promise can degenerate into conflict and violence,” warned the head of US diplomacy.
Islamic State and Türkiye
Another of the complications that Washington faces and that Biden has admitted is that the Islamic State (IS) may try to “take advantage of any vacuum to reestablish its credibility and create a safe haven“, something that the Democrat has promised to “avoid.” The same weekend as Assad’s fall, the US launched 75 air strikes against IS targets in Syria, where, according to a Pentagon spokeswoman, Washington is already “working with partners on the ground” to locate the chemical weapons stockpiles and ensure that they do not fall into the wrong hands.
The factor of Türkiye. Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been the main international ally of HTS and after the overthrow of Assad its forces have begun to bomb Kurdish forces allied with the US, who guard prisons with IS prisoners, an offensive with which rebel groups have already removed the Kurds from two cities in the north.
Hot potato for Trump
The biggest test for Biden, according to some analysts, is whether he will be able to establish some working agreement regarding Syria before Trump becomes president, but even if he were to succeed, that would not be a guarantee of how the Republican, who in his first term ended with the CIA covert program to finance Assad’s opposition and made a partial withdrawal of troops Americans from the country, which helped Turkey, Assad and Moscow, and contributed to the resignation of Jim Mattis as Secretary of Defense.
That same Saturday, while he was in France for the reopening of Notre Dame and showed his global weight before returning to the Oval Office by holding a meeting at the Elysée with Emmanuel Macron y Volodímir ZelenskiTrump posted a message on Truth Social when the rebels were still on the outskirts of Damascus and said: “Syria is a disaster but it is not our friend and the US should have nothing to do with this. This is not our battle. We must let it run its course. No need to get involved“.
The next day, with the regime overthrown and Assad fled, Trump put the events in Syria under the focus of another conflict: that of Russia y Ukraine. In another message on Truth Social he stated that Moscow had lost interest in Syria due to the war in Ukraine (which it has promised to end “in 24 hours” before taking office). “There was never much benefit in Syria for them beyond making (Barack) Obama look really stupid,” he wrote, referring to the controversial red line that the Democratic president marked and then ignored with the use of chemical weapons by the Assad regime.
Trump, who in his first term carried out two attacks on Syria with missiles in retaliation for the use of chemical weapons, may try to continue championing his policy of America First and mark distances with what is happening in a country that he also reviled as only “sand and death”, but there are elements that could make him get involved, in his usual transactional way of immediate results or in a more strategic and coherent way. Because Syria could be a important regional pawn for other of his great objectives in foreign policy: imitate the influence of china in the region, deal a blow to Iran and advance its Middle East peace plan based on the Abraham Accordssigned in his first term, for the normalization of Israel’s relations with Arab countries.
Subscribe to continue reading
