ANALYSIS || There are already lessons to be drawn from the deposition of Bashar al-Assad in Syria, including who stands to gain and lose most immediately. However, there are good signs: vandalization of Shia shrines was not allowed. But there is this doubt: will the militia that now leads Syria continue to be considered terrorists by European countries and the USA? In the United Kingdom they have already “rushed” to respond to this. Another note: “It is dangerous for European countries to hastily decide to suspend the asylum status of Syrians”
It is still too early to predict what will happen in Syria in the aftermath of a rebel offensive that in just ten days deposed the long dictatorship of the Assad family. It is true that “we are undoubtedly witnessing the end of an era with the fall of the last of those in the Middle East”, Sarah Zaaimi, an expert on Middle Eastern affairs at the Atlantic Council, tells CNN Portugal – which “means the end of an entire repressive ideology that reigned in the region for almost 70 years.” But you have to wait and see what happens next.
“The next few weeks will be crucial for [os rebeldes] demonstrate leadership on the international scene and to give guarantees to its immediate neighbors, such as Turkey and Israel, but, above all, to the main international actors, such as the USA and Russia, that their new state project is sustainable and reliable and not a new iteration of terrorist entities Al-Qaeda or ISIS.”
After years of supporting the Syria of Bashar al-Assad, who came to power 24 years ago after another 30 at the helm of his father – Hafez al-Assad -, the Russians and Iranians, great allies of the Syrian regime, found themselves “worn out by their own battles and by the war of geostrategic calculation” being fought in other parts of the region and could not “continue to sustain a costly and dystopian war in Syria, especially because Assad has shown no leadership or willingness to engage in real substantial reforms to stabilize his country.”
With the escape of the Assad family to an uncertain place (), analysts focused on predictions and comparisons with other countries plunged into chaos after the outbreak of the Arab Spring at the end of 2010. One of the biggest fears was that the offensive would leave a “ power vacuum” in Damascus, a city of increased strategic importance both for neighboring countries and for the rest of the international community. But Zaaimi is more cautious and optimistic than other experts.
“I do not believe that there will be a power vacuum in Damascus, taking into account the first series of measures taken by the opposition rebels, starting with calling for national unity, pardoning Syrian army fighters, protecting heritage sites from minorities and paving the way for a peaceful transition”, highlights Center analyst Rafik Hariri. “The country’s new leaders have shown that they have learned from past mistakes and meticulously planned their seizure of power – and now they need to demonstrate their ability to contain any regional or minority uprisings in a highly fragmented ethnic and sectarian context.”
With fears of a “power vacuum” inevitably came comparisons with Libya, a country handed over to and where the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels continue to hold their own. But these comparisons are “essentialist”, argues Zaaimi – that is, too basic taking into account the mosaic of power in Syria. “The Syrian context is much more complex from an ethnic, ideological and sectarian point of view. While Libya is a homogeneous country, with a small population and vast desert territories, where actors fight mainly for resources and governance models, Syria is a highly populated and urbanized country, surrounded by actors with immediate interests in Damascus, such as Turkey, Iraq, Lebanon and Israel.”
Good sign: vandalization of Shia shrines was not allowed
The fates in Syria are now but in recent years it has separated itself from the extremist group to adopt an apparently more moderate and inclusive position – the Hayat Tahir al-Sham (HTS), loosely translated Organization for the Liberation of the Levant, led by .
A day after the rebels arrived in Damascus, and with Syrians celebrating in the streets the fall of Assad after a bloody 13-year civil war that killed more than half a million people and forced more than 6 million to flee the country, a British minister was the first to announce a change in the West’s stance regarding HTS, which for now continues to be on the lists of terrorist organizations in European countries and the United States.
It was, however, a hasty step on Pat McFadden’s part. Hours after telling Sky News that the UK and other countries could “quickly” remove HTS from their lists of proscribed groups, the British Prime Minister noted that “it is still too early” to make that decision. “We have all seen, in other phases of history, when we thought there was a turning point, that this was not necessarily the better future that was expected”, . “We have to make sure this case is different.”
Julien Barnes-Dacey, former correspondent in Syria and current political analyst at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), wrote in an email sent to CNN Portugal that it is necessary to realize that there is already a great achievement that represents a great opportunity: “ Despite focusing on the risks, Europeans must, first of all, focus on the great opportunity that Assad’s political death represents, recognizing that the fall of the main factor of instability, brutal violence and refugee flows from Syria has left the scene ” .
With “prudence”, Sarah Zaaimi is also optimistic about the future of Syria given the first actions of HTS after the overthrow of Assad. “Golani understands that he cannot get involved in another dystopian civil war and that the management of minorities and the call for recovery and national unity are the only way to govern the country”, he begins by defending. “The first indications were very positive, for example by pardoning Assad’s fighters, by maintaining government structures and by calling for the protection of cultural heritage.”
This last point marks a clear distance between HTS and Al-Qaeda and ISIS from around a decade ago. “A major threat would have been to allow the vandalization of the Shia shrines of Sayyeda Zainab and Sayyeda Rukaya, as previous incidents in 2015 led to the involvement of Iraqi, Lebanese and Iranian militias under the pretext of protecting their holy sites,” says Zaaidi.
“Instead, Golani called for the protection of sites and respect for cultural and religious heritage. And even traditionally pro-Assad Alawite cities, including Latakia, appear relieved that the Assad era is over, which is a positive indication that minorities may want to leave behind any differences and engage in a process of national reconciliation.”
Still, the Atlantic Council analyst continues “to be cautious in making any predictions, given the past of Golani and some of his allies with links to al-Qaeda and ISIS.” Like several other experts, he assumes that “this could just be a game to gain international credibility before they go back to their old ways – let’s wait and see.”
Zaaimi sees another “very positive” sign in the choice of the new prime minister of the “government of national salvation” in Syria, Mohammed al-Bashir – “someone close to state institutions who is accepted by the majority of Syrians”, who “had already led a failed government effort” in Idlib, the HTS stronghold during the civil war, but who “maintained good relations with rebels and minorities” and who “is seen mainly as a pedagogue and as a neutral figure”.
“The Axis of Terror’s main supply chain has been compromised”
Given the complex mosaic of power in Syria, it is important to also analyze the geopolitical context of Assad’s ouster, which also provides some clues about what might happen next. For Sarah Zaaimi, “Russia is one of the losers of this new turn, especially if it loses access to the Mediterranean and the Middle East and if its two military bases in the country are closed”.
The “biggest loser”, however, “is Iran, which has just lost a fundamental ally” that linked it to Iraq and Lebanon, a country where the ayatollah regime continues to support Hezbollah. “The main supply chain of weapons and manpower between the countries of the so-called Axis of Terror has been compromised and disrupted by the fall of Assad – and Hezbollah, by extension, will find itself isolated and weakened without the support of Syria .”
On the other hand, the two big winners are obvious: Türkiye and Israel. “Turkey can ease the burden of Syrian refugees and reposition itself as the neo-Ottoman patron of the region” and, with the turnaround, Israel receives “a golden ticket to end Iran’s presence in the region and reinforce its presence in the Golan Heights and beyond.”
Moves to redefine the balance of powers in Syria are already underway. This Monday, hours after Assad’s escape, the US struck targets associated with Daesh in the center of the country and Turkey attacked US-backed Kurdish forces, with regional media reporting an agreement to withdraw Kurdish forces from the city of Manbij, in the north of the country, following advances by the Syrian National Army, another rebel group associated with HTS and supported by Ankara.
Israel has already sent forces to a buffer zone beyond the occupied Golan Heights and to former Syrian military positions on Mount Hermon, in what Tel Aviv describes as a “temporary measure”, promising to maintain air strikes on key sites of the former regime associated with missiles. and chemical weapons, including to the port of Latakia. According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a UK-based group that has been monitoring the situation in Syria since the start of the civil war in 2011, in 48 hours Israel “destroyed the most important military installations in Syria” in around 250 air strikes.
For Julien Barnes-Dacey, the fall of Assad represents, among others, an opportunity for “European governments to intensify contact with Turkey, which has influence over the rebels, to press for an inclusive approach, to offer the Syrian Kurds a path integration policy into the new structures of the Syrian State that responds both to its needs and to Turkish concerns regarding Kurdish autonomy”.
This is of great importance if one also considers the situation of the six million Syrians who have fled to other countries in more than a decade, three million of whom currently live in Türkiye. Immediately, this is one of the most sensitive points regarding the new constellation of powers in Syria, now that several are launching campaigns to repatriate Syrians and also now that several European countries, including Germany, Norway, Italy, Austria and Countries Low, they decided, with France indicating that it intends to follow the same step soon.
Asked about these decisions, Sarah Zaaimi invokes the same “prudence” that everyone must exercise at this moment in relation to HTS and the future of Syria at its helm. “It is dangerous for European countries to hastily decide to suspend the asylum status of Syrians,” says the Atlantic Council analyst. “It is too early to understand the governance model and the plans of the territory’s new leaders. Europe may be sending Syrians into another iteration of Daesh and al-Qaeda. I recommend letting the dust settle and waiting to understand what happens next in the country.”
