When centrist veteran François Bayrou, France’s new prime minister, was education minister in the 1990s, his plan to increase subsidies for private schools sparked nationwide protests. He quickly relented, remaining in office for another four years.
Three decades later, Bayrou will face a different force in the form of a divided and fractious parliament, and one of his first tasks as President Emmanuel Macron’s fourth prime minister of the year will be to approve a budget for 2025.
Firstly, Bayrou must appoint a government that, like that of his predecessor Michel Barnier, will have the support of a minority in parliament and will be vulnerable to attacks from far-right and left-wing opponents.
The dismissal of Barnier and his cabinet – the first time the French parliament voted to dismiss a government since 1962 – seemed to surprise even those behind the move. For now, there is cross-party support for emergency legislation to ensure government funding does not run out. But then the hard work of approving the budget for next year will begin.
“The difficulties remain the same as Michel Barnier,” Arnaud Benedetti, a professor at Sorbonne University, told Reuters. “At least a motion of no confidence does not seem likely in the very short term.”
A Macron aide said Bayrou was the “most consensual candidate, capable of uniting people.” Socialists say Bayrou represents more of the same.
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DEBT: A “MORAL PROBLEM”
A career politician, Bayrou, 73, was the torchbearer of centrism until Macron reshaped the political landscape in 2017, dynamiting traditional parties in a campaign that Bayrou decisively supported.
In the past, Bayrou has spoken harshly about the risks posed by France’s growing debt. And he did it again on Friday, saying the country’s debt was a “moral problem” as much as a financial one. “I hear your warning about the seriousness of the situation and I agree,” he told Barnier.
But he placed great value on maintaining peace, whether with the unions, with legislators or with the large number of powerful interests installed in France.
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“I like to fix things,” Dimanche told La Tribune in his first interview over the weekend.
However, maintaining peace in a National Assembly dominated by three warring factions will be almost impossible.
Lawmakers’ resistance to the 2025 budget bill led to Barnier’s downfall and left-wing leaders say they may try to oust Bayrou if he also uses special constitutional powers to pass the budget without a vote in parliament.
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“Bringing to the demands of opposition parties may be costly from a fiscal perspective and, as a result, the degree of fiscal consolidation may be limited next year,” JP Morgan’s Raphael Brun-Aguerre said in a note.
That was the same conclusion ratings agency Moody’s reached on Saturday, cutting France’s credit rating by one notch, saying the fall of the Barnier government reduced the chances of a significant improvement in French public finances.
