How realistic did the scenario of his regime being overthrown by an Islamist group with 20,000 fighters seem a month ago? How did this organization manage to change the course of the Syrian civil war within 12 days and capture Damascus by surprising the secret services of directly involved powerful countries? It is possible that he “escaped” from everyone the possibility of getting the upper hand in a jihadist organization led by people who a few years ago professed loyalty to his vision Osama bin Laden;
To these reasonable questions, the answers of Western officials and analysts are disarming. The power of the Sunni group Hayat Tahril al-Sham (HTS) has been underestimated, they say, while the power of a rotten, blood-soaked regime that could not stand on its own two feet when it lost the support of Russia (due to the war in Ukraine) and the Hezbollah (by extension Iran) because of the war in Lebanon and the blows from Israel. On the one hand, the heads of Western agencies say that it will take time to reassess the situation, on the other hand, reports are intensifying about the role of the same agencies in the military and financial support of the rebels in the 13 years of war, as well as of Turkey, which formed an important part of the developments and strengthened its regional power.
Sending drones from Ukraine
For example, the columnist David Igesius noted to the “Washington Post” that at the beginning of November the secret services of Ukraine had sent 150 drones and 20 operators to the rebels in Idlib in order to strike the Russian forces in Syria. Ukrainian media have been reporting since last July that a Ukrainian unit was involved in an attack on a Russian air base in Northern Syria. In October, the Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov alleged that the Ukrainians were training HTS members in drone technology. Could all this have happened under the noses of other foreign intelligence agencies? Where does reality end and conspiracy theories begin?
What is certain is that through things that, despite its fluidity, must be evaluated without blinkers. The memories are fresh and the effects are dramatic from two other “surprises” within a decade: in Afghanistan, where the Taliban in a few days captured Kabul in 2021, forcing the Americans to retreat in disorder, and in 2014, when the Islamic State organization (ISIS) occupied a large part of Iraq within a few weeks.
Communicating with as many local people as possible (armed organizations, local councils, religious bodies) should be a priority for the international community, notes Charles Listerhead of Syria programs at the US think tank Middle East Institute. Writing in Foreign Policy magazine, Lister urged international actors, who for years perceived the situation in Syria as a “frozen conflict,” to listen to the forces inside the country that are already shaping its future.
The leader and the state
Understanding the events that led to the sudden downfall of Assad is inextricably linked to how we perceive developments in the Middle East. From Afghanistan’s Taliban to Jordan’s Muslim Brotherhood and Gaza’s Hamas, Islamist groups have hailed the victory of the Syrian people, but that doesn’t mean they interpret it the same way. Despite their individual differences, they do not hide their admiration for the HTS “recipe for success”.
The leader of HTS, Abu Muhammad al-Jolanifounder and emir of al-Nusra, split from al-Qaeda in 2016. He renamed his organization, created an “umbrella” of Islamist movements, sometimes by brute force and sometimes by “persuasion”, and in 2019 set up a state formation in the province Idlib, on the border with Turkey. On the basis of sharia, he controlled the daily life of about 4 million residents and refugees, sent messages to the West that he is not planning terrorist attacks abroad, while turning the last stronghold of the anti-regime into a base for launching the overthrow of Assad. The attack launched by HTS on November 27 was followed by the other major rebel “umbrella”, the Syrian National Army (FSA), with the direct military support of Turkey in the North and the support of Western agencies in the South.
The titanic work of the winners
During the years-long war in Syria, wealthy Gulf Arab regimes in various ways bolstered the Islamist rebels, but in the spring of 2023 they reopened the Arab League’s doors to Assad, who appeared to have regained control of most of Syria. Inevitably the HTS “model” of mutation and success tempts domestic opponents of Arab regimes who envision overthrows.
: to reconcile their differences, to provide guarantees to the international community that they do not plan to export extremism, to offer security to all ethnic groups and religious communities, to draw up a new Constitution, to hold free elections. The country is at the mercy of Israel’s air force, while fighting continues in Kurdish areas that want their own state. The first speech of the transitional prime minister Mohammed al-Bashir (former leader of HTS in Idlib) was done against the background of the Syrian flag and a banner with the pledge of allegiance to Islam. At the same time, on the streets of Damascus, Islamic militiamen were “advising” women to cover their heads.
The data
- 900 US troops remained in Syria after the withdrawal of US troops, where they continue to fight the Islamic State.
- The Islamic State has 2,500 fighters in Syria and Iraq plus others.
- 9,000 remain in prisons in these countries 65%-70% of Syria, including Damascus, was controlled by the Assad regime until two weeks ago, while the Kurds controlled 20%-25%.
