The eternal “golden reserve” of French politics, the head of the centrist party Modem, who was appointed the new prime minister of France, by noon on Friday, the president, is heading towards a minority government. Nine days after the fall of his government Michel Barnierafter a motion of censure from the Left and the Far Right, Bairou is called upon to break the Gordian bond of government formation. The aim is to get France out of the political crisis – the worst since 1962 – in which it has fallen after the early elections of last July which “divided” the National Assembly into three blocs, the Macron centrist, the Left and the Far Right, without none of them having an absolute parliamentary majority. And none of the three are willing to work with anyone else.
Bayrou is called upon to reconcile the irreconcilables at an extremely difficult moment for France – with its deficit and public debt derailed – but also for the European Union in the midst of multiple crises (Ukraine, Middle East, Syria), in view of and of the assumption of the American presidency by Donald Trump.
Bold background
Bayrou was not Macron’s first choice for the prime ministership. The announcement of his appointment was preceded by intense background. Le Monde newspaper reported that after a two-hour discussion on Friday morning, Macron offered Bayrou the post of deputy prime minister and that he declined. Perhaps fearing that Bairou would withdraw his party’s support for the governing coalition, the French president appears to have backed down.
The 73-year-old Bairou, an experienced politician, is aware of the difficult situation. Already on August 18 he declared in “Figaro” that France does not need a government that will oppose the other parties but “a team that will rally”, in order to face the very serious problems of the country, the world and the planet.
Bairou’s intentions are good and holy, but it is certain that his own government will also be a minority government. With his appointment, Bayrou automatically received the support of the centrist coalition under Macron, i.e. 130 MPs out of a total of 577 in the National Assembly. For the government to be independent, the support of 289 MPs is required – which is impossible. The French Right of 47 MPs said it would not stand in the way of the formation of a government under Bayrou, but expects the new prime minister to develop his program. The reticence of the French Right is explained by the fact that the leader of Modem is considered a “traitor” by a section of it because in the second round of the 2012 presidential elections the thereby depriving the right-wing president of victory Nicolas Sarkozy who expected to be re-elected.
The term of the Socialists
France’s Socialists, part of the left-wing New Popular Front (NFP) coalition, which had lent a helping hand to Macron during exploratory talks to break the political deadlock, said they would remain in opposition but would not file a motion of impeachment. against the Bayrou government, on the condition that the new prime minister will not make use of Article 49.3 of the Constitution which enables him to pass laws bypassing Parliament.
By contrast, his far-left Insubordinate France Jean-Luc Melanchon already announced that he will immediately file a motion of censure (he has the right under the Constitution). Environmentalists, another component of the NFP, are waiting to see the new government program to clarify their position. The far-right National Rally (RN) through its leader Jordan Bardela stated that “in the beginning” he would not file a motion of impeachment against the new government. However, the RN insists that it is not backing down on its “red lines”, especially when it comes to protecting the financial and social situation of pensioners.
When the composition of France’s new government will be announced remains, for now, unknown. The French Constitution does not place a limit on the President of the Republic in order to appoint the members of the government following the recommendation of the Prime Minister. It is recalled that Bayrou’s predecessor, Barnier, assumed the prime ministership on September 5 and it took fifteen days for his government to be announced and sworn in.
; Will he succeed in passing the 2025 budget, which became the cause of his predecessor’s downfall? Bairou’s great asset is considered to be that he understands that compromises are required in politics. “The concept of compromise is inscribed in his DNA” he told “Le Monde” o David Ambibhis left-wing former rival in the bid for the town of Pau, in the South of France. Moreover, because of his age – bad tongues call him “Francois Biden” – Bayrou is not seen as a threat as a potential candidate for the 2027 presidential election, either for the Right or the Left.
The judicial adventures
Bayrou takes on the second most important political office he ever held – the first being the Presidency of the Republic. If he succeeds in retaining the premiership, this admirer of both François Mitterrand and Charles de Gaulle, a lover of literature and history, will have achieved an achievement. What’s more, he will soon face another thorn: he and ten other members of his party were accused, in the fall of 2023, of embezzling European funds. Last February Bairou was acquitted due to suspicion. However, an appeal is pending, the trial of which has not yet been set. If he is appointed to trial while Bairou still holds the office of prime minister, the event will be unprecedented for a sitting prime minister.
