Central Bank report shows that inflation is expected to end the year above the target ceiling
Financial market analysts increased the inflation projection for 2024 from 4.84% to 4.89%. The data is in the Focus Bulletin released this Monday (Dec 16, 2024) by the BC (Central Bank). Here is the report (PDF – 746 kB).
The estimate exceeds the tolerance range stipulated by the BC by 4.5%. The inflation target for the year is 3% with a tolerance of 1.5% up or down. Analysts measure inflation using the IPCA (Broad National Consumer Price Index).
Market agents also raised the GDP (Gross Domestic Product) growth estimate to 3.42%, compared to last week’s value of 3.39%. This represents the 4th consecutive week of increase.
In the foreign exchange market, analysts raised the dollar price estimate to R$5.99. The previous valuation was R$5.95.
The estimate for the basic interest rate, the Selic, for 2024 rose to 12.0% last week. In the bulletin released this Monday (Dec 16), there is no new projection.
The BC decided last Wednesday (Dec 11, 2024) the Selic by 1 percentage point. As a result, the basic interest rate ends the year at 12.25%.
For inflation in 2025, analysts increased the projection to 4.60%, compared to 4.59%. This represents the 9th consecutive increase in the projection. The GDP, exchange rate and Selic estimates were raised for 2025 and are at 2.01%, R$5.85 and 14.00%, respectively.
WHAT IS FOCUS
The is released every Monday and summarizes since 2000 the statistical projections of economists and market operators consulted by the Central Bank. It is possible to know the institutions that get the most right.
