Today’s meeting in the Bundestag provided a foretaste of the roughly two-month pre-election campaign that follows in , during which , as expected, his proposal for a vote of confidence was voted down.
During his speech, the outgoing chancellor emphasized the welfare state, pension security, the increase of the minimum hourly wage from 12 to 15 euros, investments and the relaxation of the debt brake, but also the end of the war in Ukraine.
For his part, official opposition leader Friedrich Merz blamed Solz and Habeck for the poor state of the economy, focused on the competitiveness of the economy and ruled out a coalition government with the Greens after the election.
The three fronts
In the past few days, however, “chancellor-in-waiting” Mertz hinted that he might consider an amendment to the “debt brake”. But he didn’t say it boldly, as pointed out by “Never say never,” he said in a recent interview, while in mid-November he launched a fierce attack against Soltz, saying that the decision to call early elections “was necessary because your own government, with unprecedented audacity, tried to bypass the constitutional limits of new lending”.
According to the same source, it is considered certain that Olaf Solz will declare the new borrowing a major issue of the election campaign, accusing Mertz of either wanting to loot the welfare state to finance the defense budget, or preparing for a post-election U-turn, the which he wants to silence.
And of course, the other front that Mertz will have to face and win in order to achieve his coveted election, is that of the Ukrainian issue. The head of the CDU has pledged to send long-range Taurus missiles to Kiev, which can easily hit targets inside Russian territory. But Scholz is waiting for him around the corner with the world political situation as an ally, since, by the time of the German election, Donald Trump will already be sworn in as US president and it is almost certain that some Western leaders will “urge” Kiev to seriously consider the solution of the negotiations and some analysts in Germany will remind that Russian missiles in Kaliningrad can “hit” the Berlin within three minutes.
Speaking in diplomatic terms, Mertz believes that he will avoid the dilemma that his opponent is going to put him in. Will Taurus ship to Ukraine? “Yes,” he said, notes DW, during his visit to Kiev, clarifying, however, that this assurance was provided “on the basis of the data valid today.” “President Zelensky knows our position on the Taurus missiles and nothing has changed,” he said. “Based on the data as it stands today, in December 2024, ‘it remains our decision that we must do everything so that Ukraine can exercise its right to self-defense, without restrictions, and to end this war as soon as possible. ».
An important factor for Mertz’s election is the formation of the center-right opposition front until February 23rd. In the 2021 election, Armin Lasset’s candidacy for chancellor had been undermined from within, as the head of the “sister party” of the Bavarian Christian Socialists (CSU), Markus Zender, insisted that he receive the “anointing”. This time he preferred consensus and appeared together with Friedrich Merz in mid-September to state bluntly: “The issue of the candidacy is over. The candidate will be Friedrich Mertz. I am fine with this decision and I clearly support it.”
Who is Mertz?
He comes from a conservative Catholic family in the rural Sauerland region of western Germany. He joined the CDU youth in 1972 and entered full-time politics in 1989, when he became a member of the European Parliament. After a term in Brussels, he was elected in 1994 to the lower house of the German parliament, where he served until 2009. He became best known for arguing in 2003 that German tax rules should be simple enough so that a family can calculate what it owes in a coaster.
Mertz was ready to govern already 20 years ago, when he had claimed his participation in the presidency of the Christian Democrats, with his eyes fixed on the elections that would follow. He even had the “blessings” of the powerful Wolfgang Schäuble to succeed Social Democrat Gerhard Schröder as chancellor. However, he was bypassed by Angela Merkel, who also won the 2005 elections. And even after a vote of confidence, which the social democrat Schroeder had requested in Parliament, hoping not to receive it, as is the case today.
Today, Merz promises “policies that will push Germany forward, make the country work again, and maybe also make us proud of our country, of Germany, again.”
As a self-described social conservative and economic liberal, according to a Washington Post analysis, Mertz has spent years chasing his dream job. At 69, he will – if elected – be the oldest person to take office as chancellor since Konrad Adenauer, the first post-war leader of West Germany’s government, who was 73.
The polls
If they are favourites, Mertz and his Christian Democrats, according to opinion polls, do not have an absolute majority, so they will need at least one partner to form a government.
The system in Germany is proportional, so polls are an indication of a possible governing coalition, which should have a 50% share. So according to the average of the measurements, the CDU/CSU appears to gather 32.5%, the far-right AfD 18%, the SPD 16%, the Greens 12.5%, the new left alliance of Sarah Wagenknecht (BSW) 6 %, the FDP 4% and Die Linke 3%.
The percentages show that the equation will be difficult for the Christian Democrats. First on the list for cooperation is the FDP, however, it will have to raise its percentage to enter the Parliament, as the entrance threshold is at 5%.
So the next most likely ally is none other than the SPD, in a repeat of the “grand coalition” of 2005, but this time it won’t be so… big. The SPD is expected to battle for second place, but polls currently show the second biggest force after the Christian Democrats in the next parliament to be the far-right Alternative for Germany.
