Israeli officials say a ceasefire in Gaza is a more realistic prospect than at any time in the last year, suggesting that a long-awaited deal to free hostages and increase aid to the beleaguered territory may be close.
An Israeli working group is in the Qatari capital Doha this week to restore relations with mediators in the event of a breakthrough in negotiations with the , said the officials, who asked not to be identified discussing sensitive information.
Their optimism was reflected in recent comments from senior members of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s cabinet. Defense Minister Israel Katz, speaking on Monday, said a truce was “closer than ever,” while Foreign Minister Gideon Saar told the hostages’ families that he was more optimistic than ever before. than a month ago.
“There is a chance to reach an agreement and, from what I know, it will involve all 100 hostages,” said Minister of Diaspora Affairs, Amichai Chikli, on Army Radio this Tuesday (17). “First the humanitarian cases and then the rest.”
Hamas issued a statement saying a deal is possible if Israel stops adding new conditions.
An agreement to at least pause the war between Israel and Hamas would end more than a year of frustration, during which talk of an imminent agreement emerged intermittently before quickly collapsing. The negotiations are being mediated by Qatar and Egypt, with US oversight, and recent visits by Washington officials to the region may have helped advance the process.
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Intensive efforts by Qatar and Egypt are underway “with all parties” to reach a truce in Gaza, the broadcaster said on Tuesday Extranewsbased in Cairo, which typically represents government thinking.
A Reuters reported that an agreement could be reached within days. Netanyahu’s spokesman and Egyptian television denied additional reports from the Reuters that the prime minister had traveled to Egypt on Tuesday to help with negotiations.
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Details are mostly under wraps, but two Israeli officials said the ceasefire would come in stages, starting during US President Joe Biden’s administration and continuing after Donald Trump takes office on January 20.
Adam Boehler, named by Trump as special envoy for hostage issues in the next administration, is in Israel meeting with Netanyahu, among other officials. Trump has said he wants the hostages released before starting his new term.
In the first phase of the agreement under discussion, hostages defined as “humanitarian” — women, the sick and those over 51 — would be released in exchange for Palestinian prisoners held in Israel. There would then be a six- to seven-week ceasefire during which Israeli troops would withdraw from parts of Gaza, with talks beginning about a permanent ceasefire.
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Hundreds of aid trucks would enter Palestinian territory daily during this period, bringing much-needed food, water and health supplies to a population that the United Nations and aid groups say is in a humanitarian crisis.
The second phase, according to officials, would bring back the remaining hostages — mostly men of military age — in exchange for more Palestinian prisoners. The third phase would see the beginning of reconstruction work in Gaza and would include the return of the bodies of the hostages. About half of the 100 still in captivity are considered dead.
In previous rounds of negotiations, a major obstacle has been Hamas’s insistence that, from the outset, Israel agree to withdraw all its troops from Gaza. Israel has refused, saying it will not stop its campaign until Hamas is destroyed and can no longer govern the territory.
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Although Hamas has not publicly acknowledged a change in this stance, Israeli officials say the Iran-backed group has become more flexible.
A number of other issues still need to be negotiated, including what constitutes a humanitarian case for a hostage. Israel wants all women to be released first, including soldiers.
A second sticking point is what security checks would be imposed on Gazans returning north of the strip. A third is where Israeli troops should withdraw from, and a fourth is that Israel wants to reserve the right to return to the fight in Gaza.
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Any of these points could prevent an agreement from being reached.
The war between Israel and Hamas began in October 2023, when thousands of Hamas militants invaded southern Israel from Gaza, killing 1,200 people and kidnapping 250. Israel responded with a ferocious air, sea and land attack, in a war which turned much of the coastal strip into rubble, displaced some 2 million people and, according to the Hamas-controlled health ministry, killed 45,000.
Hamas is considered a terrorist group by the US and many other governments. Israel claims to have killed almost 20,000 militants, but does not say how many civilians.
Just over a year ago, more than 100 hostages were exchanged for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners and an increase in humanitarian aid. But an agreement to maintain that peace quickly fell apart.
During the course of the war, other Iranian-allied militias joined attacks against Israel in solidarity with Hamas, including Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen. Israel retaliated, killing Hezbollah’s leadership and severely affecting the group’s military capabilities. A ceasefire with Hezbollah was agreed in late November, which the US said would give momentum to stalled Gaza talks.
Iran has exchanged direct fire with Israel twice but is in a defensive position, especially after the ouster of its key ally, former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Israel launched a major offensive in Syria immediately after its overthrow, seeking to destroy weapons sites before they fell into the hands of hostile Islamist groups.
All of this has left Hamas isolated and weak. This, according to the Israelis, is what makes the group appear to have softened its demands and why a deal seems more achievable.
© 2024 Bloomberg L.P.
