President must change at least 9 ministries after Carnival; PSD, PP, MDB, Podemos and União Brasil must expand spaces
The PT must provide spaces on the Esplanade so that the president (PT) accommodate Centrão parties in the 2nd half of its government. The beneficiaries must be PSD, PP, MDB, Podemos and União Brasil. Planalto assesses that the PT is the only “fat” which can be cut in government.
The party commands 13 of Lula’s 38 ministries. The president, however, has not yet defined which supporters can leave the Esplanada.
The PT member wants to correct the course of some areas, such as and accommodate parties that show dissatisfaction, but that can help both in Congress and in the electoral compositions for 2026.
Speculation on the subject has gained momentum since the do proposed by the Ministry of Finance to Congress, on November 29th.
Parties from the allied base demonstrated dissatisfaction with the pressure of having to vote on significant changes to unpopular proposals within a deadline considered tight. They also demanded the release of amendments to the Budget.
The government then began to negotiate with the parties to the package in December. One of the projects was approved by the Chamber on Tuesday (Dec 17, 2024).
CHARGES FOR MORE SPACE
The PSD and União Brasil, acronyms considered allies, took their dissatisfaction with the representation they have on the Esplanada to the government. They demanded more space in ministries in exchange for support for the measures.
The main signal came at the beginning of the processing of the spending cut package, when the 2 parties hesitated to approve the . The PSDB only changed its position after a last-minute meeting with the Civil House ministers, and the Secretariat of Institutional Relations,on December 3rd.
LOOKING TO 2026
Planalto also wants to try to attract or, at least neutralize, centrist parties in relation to Lula’s possible candidacy for re-election in 2026.
União Brasil has the governor of Goiás, which is already declared to the Presidency. The Republicans have the governor of São Paulo,tipped for the presidential race, although he denies this possibility and says that .
BUT ONLY POST-CARNIVAL
The expectation is that Lula will announce the ministerial changes only after Carnival, in March. Although the new command of Congress is practically agreed between most of the parties and the government, the PT member wants to wait for the scenario to consolidate, with (Republicans-PB) in the presidency of the Chamber, and (União Brasil-AP) in the Senate.
There is still a dispute over command of the main thematic commissions. Therefore, Lula must wait for the movement to settle down to define the changes.
The PT member still wants to hold a ministerial meeting in December to, according to him, take stock of the year and pass on some messages. It would be a final goodbye to his ministers. Therefore, the president insists on traveling to Brasília this week, while he is still recovering from skull surgery.
EXCHANGE IN MINES AND ENERGY
Lula must promote an exclusively political change in the Ministry of Mines and Energy, led by (PSD). The position of minister should go to the MDB, with the nomination of the senator (MDB-AM), or for the Republicans, with the nomination of the deputy and party president, (SP). The President of the Senate, (PSD-MG), is also considered.
At the beginning of September, Pereira to run for president of the Chamber and the leader of the party in the House, (PB). The movement placed Lula in the legislative articulation and overturned the candidacies of other names that could gain some muscle by February: (União Brasil-BA) and (PSD-BA).
The assessment in Planalto is that the PSD itself, aware of Lula’s good relationship with Silveira, says that the minister no longer represents the bench – especially that of the Senate, which nominated him.
The strategy would be to force the president “adopt” the minister and place him in a place within his personal quota on the Esplanade. With this, in practice, the PSD would gain another ministry.
WHERE IS SILVEIRA GOING?
In any case, Silveira must be moved. It lost strength with agents outside the government: in the market and in Congress.
During his time in the ministry, he became close to the first lady, Janja Lula da Silva, and gained direct access to the PT member.
The minister would like to occupy a space in the Planalto, but Lula faces strong resistance to messing with PT ministers: Rui Costa (Civil House), Alexandre Padilha (Institutional Relations) and Márcio Macêdo (General Secretariat).
On the betting exchange, Silveira could go to Padilha’s place or to the SAJ (Secretariat of Legal Affairs of the Civil House), a post that would give access to the president on a daily basis.
ATTENTION WITH THE PSD
Another change is being considered to suit the PSD bench in the Chamber. The group argues that it is only linked to the tiny Ministry of Fisheries, commanded by the licensed deputy (FOOT). Charge a more robust folder.
The government has given special attention to the because that’s what in 2024 and has influential members linked to opposition names. Starting with Kassab himself, Tarcísio’s main secretary in São Paulo. On the other hand, the party has allies of Lula, such as the mayor of Rio, and Belo Horizonte, .
The PSD also commands the Ministry of Agriculture, with –which is part of the quota of the party’s bench in the Senate. One way to comply with the party would be to give Pacheco a portfolio, as he will leave command of the Senate in February. There is speculation that he could head Health or Justice, but there are no clear indications that Lula intends to move in both areas.
LEAVE PT, ENTER PT
The replacement of (PT) at the Ministry of Social Development was once again considered. In 2023, when Lula made the first changes to his team, replacing Dias was suggested, but he remained in the position. Responsible for Bolsa Família, he has been criticized for failing to transform the program’s deliveries into support for the government. The PT, however, is not giving up the portfolio, which commands one of the government’s largest budgets.
The name of the deputy and president of the PT, was even mentioned, but she stated on December 7 that she intends to remain in charge of the party until July, when the party elects a new leadership.
According to internal rules, she could only occupy a position of trust in the government when she leaves her current position. As Gleisi intends to run for a seat in the Senate in the next elections, he would have to leave the ministry in April 2026.
If he leaves the chair, Dias will return to the Senate. He could assume leadership of the Government in Congress or the Senate. Today, senators are in these positions (PT-AP) and (PT-BA), respectively.
PEPPER OUTSIDE SECOM
The minister’s departure (PT) of Secom (Secretariat of Social Communication of the Presidency) is taken for granted even by PT members. Some even say he could be the only one to fall even before February.
The change, in this case, does not involve party accommodation, but the search for a solution to one of the problems that the government has faced since the beginning of Lula’s third term.
On December 6, the president harshly criticized communication and stated that the area is one of his concerns to be resolved from 2025 onwards. He said that there was a mistake on his part for not organizing interviews with journalists, he demanded that a tender be held for digital media and promised “corrections”.
“We weren’t even able to make us have a deeper study on the digital issue and we didn’t even make a bid so that we could have a highly competitive digitalized press”, said the PT member.
Lula’s speech was interpreted by some PT members as a “public dismissal” of Pepper. It was the main topic among the few party chiefs who participated in the celebration dinner held by the party in Brasília, a few hours after the president’s speech.
In August, Secom revoked the R$197,753,736 tender that had selected 4 digital communications companies to provide consultancy and management of the federal government’s social networks. Read the document (PDF – 604 kB).
The bidding had been suspended in July by the TCU (Federal Audit Court), which identified signs of fraud, based on an alleged leak of the bidders’ proposals.
The reporting minister welcomed the suggestion. Read the (PDF – 255 kB). The technical area of the Court of Auditors alleged that a press vehicle published the results of the contest in encrypted form 1 day before the envelopes were opened.
The president wants the marketer from his victorious 2022 campaign in charge of the area. Sidônio Palmeira, however, resists accepting a government position. He lives in Salvador (BA) and would prefer to continue collaborating occasionally, but he has become more requested by Lula in recent months.
The marketer helps define the language and content of advertising campaigns and statements. Collaborated with the production of of the Minister of Finance, on November 27, 2024. In the video, Haddad announced the spending review package.
Given the speculation about the marketer’s move to Planalto, a phrase from economist Gustavo Franco, former president of the Central Bank, has been circulating among politicians and journalists. In the book “The secret laws of the economy”he says: “Principle of Self-Deception – every time authorities meet and agree that the government has a communication problem, it is because the direction of economic policy must be seriously rethought.”
Lula likes Pimenta and can keep him in government. In this case, he could assume the General Secretariat of the Presidency. Márcio Macêdo, current holder, would be transferred to the PT treasury or to the presidency of the Perseu Abramo Foundation, currently led by Paulo Okamotto, a friend of Lula.
Another possible solution suggested for Pimenta would be to take on the leadership of the Government in the Chamber, a position currently occupied by (PT-CE).
