The result is below 2020, the beginning of the Covid pandemic, when the drop recorded was 20.2%; data are from the consultancy Elos Ayta
Ibovespa, the main index of the (São Paulo Stock Exchange), closed this Wednesday (Dec 18, 2024) at 120,771.88 points. This is one. There was a decline of 3,926 points compared to the close of trading on Tuesday (Dec 17).
When considering the variation of the Brazilian Stock Exchange in dollars, the drop was 29.3% from January to December 18, 2024. It is the worst result since 2015, when the drop was 41.0%. The data comes from the consultancy and was sent exclusively to the Poder360.
The poor performance is worse than in 2020, the first year of the covid-19 pandemic. In that period, the drop was 20.2%.
SHARES DROP
The airline Azul was the one that depreciated the most in dollars, with a drop of 82.4% in the accumulated period from January 1st to December 18th, 2024. Cogna, in the educational sector, was the 2nd with the biggest decline (-77. 7%) in the period.
TAX POLICY CONCERNS INVESTORS
The negative performance of the Brazilian Stock Exchange occurs at the same time that the president’s government (PT) rush to approve fiscal adjustment measures and the 2025 Budget project. The legislative recess officially begins on Monday (Dec 23), but deputies and senators must leave Brasília before then, due to the end of the week.he. In practice, there is less than a week to vote on measures of interest to the government, such as the tax package.
There is a fear among investors that Congress will dehydrate the spending cuts measures, which economists and financial market agents already considered insufficient. When detailing the fiscal package on November 28, the impact estimated by the economic team was for 2025 and 2026. The projection for the next 6 years is .
DOLLAR VS. REAL
The commercial dollar renewed its record and closed this Wednesday (Dec 18) at R$ 6,27which represents an increase of 2.82%. This is the 5th elevation in a row.
The did not operate with auctions in the foreign exchange market this Wednesday (Dec 18), unlike the . The monetary authority, however, on Thursday (Dec 19) auctioned up to US$3 billion.
According to consultant Einar Rivero, the devaluation of the real is due to 2 factors:
- internal fiscal uncertainties – “The market’s distrust regarding the trajectory of public accounts continues to affect the exchange rate. The announcement of the government’s fiscal package failed to convince investors”; e
- higher interest rates in the USA – “The Federal Reserve kept interest rates high throughout the year, attracting capital to US Treasury bonds and putting pressure on emerging currencies like the real”.
This Wednesday (Dec 18), the Fed (Federal Reserve, the central bank of the United States) will range the basic interest rate from 4.50% to 4.75% to 4.25% to 4.50% per year. year.
The North American monetary authority indicated that it should carry out 2 more cuts in 2025, signaling caution. In the statement ( – PDF – 186 kB, in English), he said that economic activity continues to expand.
The Minister of Finance, , said this Wednesday (18th December) that the exchange rate of the dollar will “settle in”. In an interview with journalists, he stated that the federal government has played its role in sending measures that limit the growth of public expenditure.
“I have talked a lot with financial institutions [sobre a] inflation forecast for next year, exchange rate forecast for next year. So far, in conversations with large institutions, the forecasts are better than what speculators are making”these.
