While the president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) and some of its closest allies reinforce the discourse that the financial market is largely responsible for the rise in the dollar in recent weeks, the majority of Brazilians point out that it was the federal government’s own decisions that led to the exchange rate movement, as well as the lack of control over public accounts.
This is what a survey by business consultancy shows, based on citations on social media and searches for the topic on digital platforms in the last 30 days. 54,873 comments were mapped on YouTube and X (formerly Twitter) during this period.
According to the survey, exclusively for the InfoMoneymore than a third of the surveyed universe states that the current government’s economic decisions were the factor that most contributed to the rise of the dollar against the real (37.2%), with the market’s negative reaction to proposals such as tax exemption Income Tax (IR) for those who receive up to R$5,000.
Next, with 26.42% of mentions, the lack of control in public accounts appears, with an increase in spending without clear counterparts – precisely one of the biggest concerns of the market and economists in relation to the Brazilian situation.
In third place, with 18.19%, speculation in the financial market was mentioned, corroborating Lula’s speech and that of part of the government that speculative movements would serve to manipulate the exchange rate and supposedly destabilize the current administration.
For 14.16% of the public surveyed, the strong rise in the American currency is the result of the dissemination of false news (“fake news”) – .
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Also mentioned in the survey were the actions of the National Congress (1.81%); the basic interest rate charged by the Central Bank (0.99%); international factors (0.49%); news about Lula’s health status (0.41%); and statements by the President of the Republic (0.33%).
“The data shows that Brazilians have not yet reached a consensus on who is really to blame for the rise in the dollar: would it be the Central Bank, the government, or the market? The debate remains heated”, comments the partner and director of data and analytics at Timelens, Renato Dolci.
“Economic decisions and the lack of control over public accounts dominate the debate about the rise in the dollar on social media, together accounting for more than 60% of mentions on the topic”, explains Dolci.
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“These factors reflect the great concern of Brazilians with fiscal management and economic instability, which have generated distrust and uncertainty in the market.”
See the numbers:
| Economic decisions | 37,20% |
| Lack of control in public accounts | 26,42% |
| Speculations in the financial market | 18,19% |
| Dissemination of “fake news” | 14,16% |
| Action of Congress and Senate | 1,81% |
| High interest rates from the Central Bank | 0,99% |
| International factors | 0,49% |
| News about the president’s health | 0,41% |
| Statements by President Lula | 0,33% |
Dollar
On Thursday (19), in a session marked by strong volatility. The progress of the fiscal package in Congress, with the approval of the Proposed Amendment to the Constitution (PEC) with the main cost-cutting measures in the Chamber, positively influenced the exchange rate. Later, the text would also be approved in two rounds in the Senate.
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The BC held two foreign exchange auctions in the morning, which also helped to contain the American currency. Right at the opening, the municipality had already sold US$3 billion in cash in an auction announced the day before.
With Thursday’s sales, the BC totals more than US$20.75 billion sold since last week, in a series of exchange rate interventions that included spot auctions and line auctions (dollars with repurchase commitment).
Campos Neto and Galípolo
Earlier, also on Thursday, the president of the BC, Roberto Campos Netoheld a press conference alongside Gabriel Galípolo, who will be his successor. In his speeches, the current head of the BC refuted the possibility of establishing a price for the dollar and guaranteed that intervention will only take place when necessary.
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Galipolo, in turn, at this time.
“I think it is not correct to try to treat the market as a monolithic block, let’s say, as if it were one thing, which is coordinated, moving in a single direction. We just need to understand that the market generally works with opposite positions”, explained Galípolo, nominated by Lula for the presidency of the BC.
“For a market to exist, there needs to be someone buying and someone selling. So, every time the price of some asset moves in some direction, you have winners and losers. I think the idea of a speculative attack as something coordinated does not represent a good idea”, concluded the future president of the BC.
