The index of pobreza na Argentina would have fallen to 38.9% and the level of extreme poverty — the so-called indigence — falling to 8.6% in the third quarter of the year, according to an estimate in a report by the National Council for the Coordination of Social Policies (CNCPS), a body subordinate to the Ministry of Human Capital, based on data published this Thursday (20) by Indec.
The official measurement of poverty, prepared by the statistics body, is every six months and the last known data is from the first half of the year, when it reached 52.9%. According to calculations, indigence was 20.2% in the first quarter and a reduction to 16% in the second;
“Thus, thanks to the implementation of economic policies that contributed to and , poverty continues to decrease throughout the year,” said an official statement from the ministry.
A better focus on transferring resources to the most vulnerable sectors was also cited, “in a direct and transparent way”, said the ministry. The ministry recalled that at the beginning of the administration [de Javier Milei]50% of the resources destined for the most vulnerable populations were distributed through intermediaries, such as Executing Units of the Potenciar Trabalho program, canteens and cooperatives, while the other 50% were transferred directly.
Although they work with different results in absolute numbers, experts consulted by the newspaper The Nation agree that there is a tendency for indicators to reduce. “Data on the distribution of total family income from the third quarter suggest that the poverty rate for this quarter would be around 39%,” said Martín Rozada, specialist from the Torcuato Di Tella University (UTDT).
“This value, together with a poverty rate of 51% in the second quarter, indicates a poverty rate for the semester from April to September of 44.9%. If the evolution of family income is similar to that of the third quarter and the inflation of basic food baskets continues to slow down, the poverty rate in the second half of the year would be around 40% and the destitution rate around 11%”, calculated Rozada
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Agustín Salvia, coordinator of the UCA Social Debt Observatory, said that, according to estimates generated from recent EPH-INDEC publications, referring to the third quarter of 2024, the population in a situation of poverty is at similar levels to the third quarter of 2024. 2023 (38.6% in 2023 and 38.9% in 2024).
“In the period between the second and third quarters of this year, this percentage fell drastically from 51% to 38.9% of the population. This drastic decrease is due to the effect of the slowdown in price increases and the relative increase in the purchasing capacity of labor income in the medium sectors”, said the sociologist.
Salvia also said that destitution went from 10% to 8.5%, when comparing the third quarters of 2023 and 2024. This shows a situation of rapid recovery, considering that, in the second quarter of this year, 16% of the population was in this situation. situation.
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“This is basically due to the increase in non-labor income of lower-income families and the sharp slowdown in price increases, especially in relation to food and beverages,” he said. For the UCA specialist, the second half of this year could end even slightly below 40%.
Finally, Leopoldo Tornarolli, a Cedlas expert at the University of La Plata, agreed with this possibility. “This will sound strong: poverty in the April-September semester would have been below 45%, an eight-point drop from January-June. And in July-September it was around 38.5%. If so, it could close 2024 below 2023”, explained the poverty and inequality researcher in X.
