Central Bank released new Focus Bulletin this Monday (23); forecast for the IPCA went from 4.89% to 4.91% this year and from 4.6% to 4.84% in 2025
Economists consulted by revised their projections for , the value of and (GDP) for this year. Furthermore, expectations for the rate were adjusted for the years 2025 and 2026. The , published this Monday (23), indicates that the financial market predicts that the dollar will end 2024 quoted at R$6.00. Last Friday, the American currency closed at R$6.071, after having reached R$6.30 during the week.
Predictions for the dollar in the coming years were also high. For 2025, the expectation is that the currency will be priced at R$5.90, while for 2026 and 2027, the projections are R$5.84 and R$5.80, respectively. In relation to Selic, the expectation rose to 14.75% in 2025 and 11.75% in 2026, compared to the current rate of 12.25% per year. The Central Bank signaled that there may be two more increases of 1 percentage point, in response to the risk of deteriorating inflation.
The forecast for the Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA) was also adjusted, going from 4.89% to 4.91% in 2024 and from 4.6% to 4.84% in 2025. For 2026 and 2027, the Expectations remained at 4% and 3.8%, respectively. These revisions occurred after the approval of the government’s fiscal package projects in Congress, which, according to analysts, was dehydrated, resulting in a decrease in the expected fiscal impact.
Economists estimate that the reduction in the fiscal effectiveness of the measures could vary between R$8 billion and R$20 billion. This revision in expectations reflects concern about inflationary dynamics and the need for adjustments in economic policies. The current scenario requires increased attention, since the Central Bank’s interventions in the exchange rate, through extra auctions, have been a response to market fluctuations.
*Report produced with the help of AI
Posted by Luisa dos Santos
