Goiás plans to repeat in 2026. In addition to being the electoral stronghold of a possible candidate for the Presidency of the Republic, the state is on track to once again host a regional tussle between the governor () and the former president ().
The two right-wing politicians fought this year in a dispute in which Bolsonaro won, but which ended up being won by Caiado —, who was running against Bolsonaro’s Fred Rodrigues (PL).
The 75-year-old governor is in his second term as head of the state and says he will leave the government at the beginning of 2026 to dedicate himself to his presidential candidacy.
Despite the local triumph, nationally Caiado is another in the list of names trying to become viable with an eye on the vacancy opened with Bolsonaro’s ineligibility. Unlike most of his competitors, however, he has the problem of at least for now not counting on the former president’s sympathy.
Caiado minimizes the situation and plans to launch his presidential pre-candidacy in 2025, at a large event sponsored by União Brasil in Salvador, stronghold of the party’s vice-president, , and the mayor of the capital of Bahia, Bruno Reis (União Brasil).
On the 11th, the governor suffered a setback in the state’s Electoral Court, when he used the Palácio das Esmeraldas for meetings with supposed electoral purposes this year. Caiado says he will appeal the decision.
In Goiás, its political situation is comfortable for now. If he fulfills his promise to try again to win the seat he sought in 1989 — at the time, the then leader of the UDR (União Democrática Ruralista) came tenth in the dispute —, his deputy, Daniel Vilela (MDB), will take over the state government.
Son of the former governor and former senator, who died in 2021, the emedebista is the governor’s candidate for his succession.
His main competitor must be senator Wilder Morais (PL), at whose house Bolsonaro watched the beginning of the investigation that consolidated his candidate’s defeat in Goiânia, in October.
For now, the task of Bolsonarism remains difficult, since Caiado has a good evaluation of his government and also surfed the municipal election — he elected his candidates in Goiânia and Aparecida de Goiânia, the two largest cities in the state, with União Brasil being the champion party in the state, with 95 city halls.
Then came the MDB of Vilela, with 46. The PL elected 26 mayors.
In the race for Mayor of Goiânia, Bolsonaro publicly criticized Caiado, whom he even called “”. After the result, .
The other political forces in Goiás remain in supporting roles. Once a power in the state, former governor Marconi Perillo’s PSDB elected just seven mayors, . No candidacy for government is considered.
The PT can name its position and give a platform to Lula’s re-election attempt, but it also has very low chances.
One of Caiado’s main flags for electing his successor must be public safety, a topic that will even be discussed at a meeting of governors in November.
Even opponents say that crime has decreased in the state, especially in the capital, Goiânia, but they privately claim that this was only achieved thanks to indiscriminate police violence.
A chronic problem in practically all large cities, health should also be one of the central themes of the campaign, as well as pressure from civil servants for greater salary adjustments.
The dispute for the state’s two seats in the Senate should also place Caiado and Bolsonaro in opposing camps, unless the two politicians, who have a history of friction and affection, come to an understanding again.
Caiado intends to launch his wife, Gracinha Caiado (União Brasil). The other name on the governor’s ticket must be used to form regional political alliances around Vilela. One of those listed is the former mayor of Aparecida de Goiânia Gustavo Medanha (MDB).
On the side of Bolsonarism, the strongest name is that of federal deputy Gustavo Gayer (PL), and he may have internal competitors — current councilor Major Vitor Hugo, who was leader of the Bolsonaro government in the Chamber of Deputies, is cited as someone who aims the vacancy.
The two senators who will end their terms in January 2027 are Vanderlan Cardoso (PSD) and Jorge Kajuru (PSB). The first left the municipal election charred after melting down during the campaign for Mayor of Goiânia and falling from first place to fifth place in the polls.
X-ray | Goiás
- Estimated population (2024): 7.350.483
- Voters (2024): 5.126.435
- Territorial area: 340 mil km²
- PIB per capita (2021): R$ 34.522,53
- State budget (2024): R$42 billion
- State budget for investments (2024): R$ 11 billion
Governor
- Ronaldo Caiado (União Brasil)
Senators
- Jorge Kajuru (PSB) – 2019-2027
- Vanderlan Cardoso (PSD) – 2019-2027
- Wilder Morais (PL) – 2023-2031
Number of city halls by elected parties in 2024
- União Brasil: 95
- MDB: 46
- PL: 26
- PP: 26
- We can: 14
Voting by party for mayor in 2024 (1st round)
- União Brasil: 1.035.011
- MDB: 477.576
- PL: 303.697
- PP: 151.159
- We can: 62.445
Sources: TSE (Superior Electoral Court), IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics) and Annual Budget Law of the Government of Goiás
