Nominal cut price increased by R$39 in 10 years; expert says that the rise in the dollar reduced the supply of the product in Brazil
Brazilians who want to eat picanha on New Year’s Eve this year will pay more for the cut of meat compared to the previous New Year’s Eve. The average price for 1 kg of cut was R$77.44 in November, the most recent data available. It is R$9.77 more expensive than the value at the end of 2023 (R$67.67).
The data helps to build a negative perception about the economy, which feels the weight of meat in its pocket. The president’s government (PT) is particularly concerned about the cost of food, due to the social nature of the PT administration.
The survey was sent exclusively to the Poder360 by the Government of São Paulo based on the cost of meat in the State.
At a level of comparison, a group of friends who plan to buy 4 kg of picanha to ring in the New Year should spend around R$310. The disbursement 11 months earlier would be R$271. In other words, these people would have to pay R$39 more for the same cut.
Considering nominal numbers (ignoring inflation), the price per kg of protein increased by R$39 in 10 years. Read in the infographic below how the values behaved:
Even in real values (adjusted for inflation), the results are not so optimistic. The average price of picanha in 2024 is not higher than the values for 2021 (R$ 85.9) and 2022 (R$ 81.1), when taking into account the last 18 years.
LULA’S PROMISE
One of Lula’s most remembered promises in the elections concerns precisely the price of picanha. He had said that Brazil would have the cheapest cut.
“This country has to grow again, it has to be happy again, it has to generate jobs again. The people, I always say, the people have to go back to eating a barbecue, eating a picanha and having a beer”declared in an interview with National Newspaper em 2022.
DOLLAR & PICANHA
“The most significant variation in meat prices in 2024 was driven by a combination of structural and cyclical factors that impacted both supply and demand”told the Poder360 economist and managing partner of .
In the case of animal proteins, the expert details the following reasons:
- climatic conditions – the high temperatures hampered the recovery of pastures, which limited the availability of livestock;
- reduction in cow slaughter – the last 3 years have seen a large discard of females. The practice was abandoned in 2024, which reduced market supply and increased prices;
- dollar on the rise – the North American currency has reached 2024. This has impacted the value of meat because: 1) sales abroad became more attractive than the domestic market, reducing supply; and 2) increased the cost of importing inputs for animals, passed on to consumers;
- income restoration – the low levels of and increased the purchasing possibilities for Brazilians, who were now able to buy more meat. In this case, there was an influence of increased demand.
“The significant increase in the cost of meat continues to be the predominant factor in the rise in the cost of Christmas dinner in 2024. The rise in meat has a much greater impact due to its weight on consumption habits and family budgets”said the economist.
PERCEPTION ABOUT THE ECONOMY
PowerData shows that Brazilians are less optimistic about their personal financial situation than they were 6 months ago. Today, 52% of voters say they believe their finances will “to improve” next semester. The rate fell 5 percentage points when it was 57% – the highest since the pandemic.
The decline interrupts an upward trend that had been recorded by the survey in the population’s perception.
On the opposite side, 16% of Brazilians declare that their personal financial situation should “get worse” in the next 6 months. It was 12% in July. In other words, there was an increase within the margin of error of 2 percentage points.
The numbers indicate that, although the majority of the population is optimistic about their personal economic future, there is already concern about the economic scenario.
The research was carried out by PowerDatagroup company Poder360 Journalism, with its own resources. Data was collected from December 14 to 16, 2024, through calls to cell phones and landlines. There were 2,500 interviews in 192 municipalities in the 27 units of the Federation. The margin of error is 2 percentage points. The confidence interval is 95%.
To reach 2,500 interviews that proportionally fill (as they appear in society) the groups by sex, age, income, education and geographic location, the PowerData makes tens of thousands of phone calls. Often, there are more than 100 thousand calls until interviewees are found that faithfully represent the population as a whole. Find out more about the methodology by reading .
