The world’s main economies have registered signs of solid growth over the last few months, with emphasis on Europe and some Asian powers. On the Old Continent, economic recovery remained stable, in part thanks to the decrease in inflation, which has been gradually approaching historically low values, and the decline in high interest rates.
The (ECB) confirms that, since the beginning of the year, the countries of Southern Europe “appear to have left the shadow of the debt crisis”, referring specifically to overcoming the financial difficulties that marked the region in the last decade. Spain assumed a prominent position, recording Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth above the euro zone average and presenting a recovering labor market, with unemployment levels approaching pre-crisis values.
In Asia, China and India continue to lead, although data from the second half of 2024 show some fluctuations, especially in domestic demand and export volumes. Even so, the (IMF) highlights that “both nations continue to benefit from strong investments in infrastructure and a large, young workforce”. Japan also showed signs of recovery, driven by the technology sector and an increase in demand for industrial products on the international market.
Despite this relatively favorable global scenario, there are factors of instability that cannot be ignored. Two armed conflicts are still ongoing: the war in Ukraine, which still raises fears of interruptions in energy supplies to Europe, and the situation in the Middle East, with significant impacts on the oil market. Furthermore, there is still a lot of uncertainty about what the beginning of Donald Trump’s term holds for the direction of North American economic policies, particularly with regard to international trade and exchange rate stability.
In global terms, 2024 ends with signs of optimism for many economies, especially in Southern Europe and Asia. However, open geopolitical events and possible changes in US leadership keep the world on alert, remembering that future economic performance depends, to a large extent, on external factors and political decisions that are sometimes difficult to anticipate.
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